Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 4

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday


	Bergantiños		Portugalete

	1	X	2
	2.10	3.00	3.10
	2.12	3	3.15
	2.23	3.05	3.39
	2.17	3.08	3.33	Watch
	2.2	2.95	3.35
	2.26	3.14	3.25
	2.13	3.05	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2.02)	3.04 ↓ (3.11)	3.24 ↓ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bergantiños
41.9%

Draw
30%

Portugalete
28.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.5%

28.9%

26.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.2%

29.3%

26.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bergantiños has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Portugalete has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bergantiños than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portugalete than the current prediction. (-1.8%)

Bergantiños - Portugalete Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Garcia J. ⚽,
36', 1 - 1, Sanchez A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
55', (Penalty Awarded),
61', 2 - 1, Sanchez A. ⚽,
84', 3 - 1, Ankudinov D. ⚽,
86', 3 - 2, Mayo Arce M. ⚽,

Preview

Bergantiños has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Portugalete is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Portugalete could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

These two teams have no recorded direct encounters in recent history.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bergantinos	5	4	1	0	12:5	7	13
9	Portugalete	5	2	1	2	5:6	-1	7

Last Results with these Odds

Bergantiños - the odds 2.02 are the expected chance of winning is 44.47%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bergantiños FC
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
20.09.26	Gimnástica de Torrelavega - Bergantiños	0:3 ✺
Spanish Copa Federacion
16.09.26	Santa Marta Tormes - Bergantiños	1:0 ✺
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
13.09.26	Bergantiños - Amorebieta	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Gernika - Bergantiños	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
12.08.26	Bergantiños - Lugo	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWTL
- Club Portugalete
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
19.09.26	Portugalete - Coruxo	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Portugalete - Compostela	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Atlético Astorga - Portugalete	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
19.08.26	Leioa - Portugalete	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Portugalete - Barakaldo	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WTWTW

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