Match Info

2. SNL - Round 9

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovenia	NZS


	Bistrica		Rudar Velenje

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.40	2.60
	2.38	3.3	2.52	Watch
	2.48	3.45	2.46
	2.48	3.58	2.58	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.4
	2.48	3.65	2.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↓ (2.68)	3.45 ↓ (3.93)	2.52 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bistrica
37.6%

Draw
26.3%

Rudar Velenje
36%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.5%

24.2%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

23.7%

41.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bistrica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Rudar Velenje has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bistrica than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rudar Velenje than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rudar Velenje could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Bistrica - Rudar Velenje Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, ⚽,
10', 2 - 0, ⚽,
14', 2 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
88', 3 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 11th and 6th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bistrica won 3.

In recent outings, Bistrica has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Rudar is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Bistrica could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 8 head-to-head meetings, Bistrica has recorded 3 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 15:9 (averaging 1.9:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bistrica against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 12:5 goals (averaging 3:1.3 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Rudar	9	5	0	4	19:16	3	15
10	NK Bistrica	9	4	1	4	12:14	-2	13

Last Results with these Odds

Bistrica - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 35.49%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- NK Bistrica
Slovenian 2 SNL
26.09.26	Tabor Sežana - Bistrica	1:0 ✺
20.09.26	Dravinja - Bistrica	3:1 ✺
12.09.26	Bistrica - Brežice	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Triglav - Bistrica	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Bistrica - Vrhnika	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLWLW
- Rudar Velenje
Slovenian 2 SNL
28.09.26	Rudar Velenje - Dravinja	3:1 ✺
19.09.26	Brežice - Rudar Velenje	3:4 ✺
13.09.26	Rudar Velenje - Triglav	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	Vrhnika - Rudar Velenje	4:2 ✺
29.08.26	Rudar Velenje - Bilje	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Slovenian 2 SNL
21.11.25	Rudar Velenje - Bistrica	0:0
08.08.25	Bistrica - Rudar Velenje	3:1
28.03.25	Rudar Velenje - Bistrica	2:2
14.09.24	Bistrica - Rudar Velenje	2:1
06.11.23	Bistrica - Rudar Velenje	5:1
30.07.23	Rudar Velenje - Bistrica	0:0
13.05.23	Bistrica - Rudar Velenje	2:2

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