Match Info

BRAZIL: COPA VERDE - QUARTER-FINALS

Date: 20 March 2024, Wednesday


	Brasiliense		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	15.5	5.5	1.18
	17	5.5	1.17
	11.59	5.32	1.16
	11.59	5.32	1.17
	10	4.33	1.25
	19	6.35	1.13
	17	5.5	1.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	14.53 ↑ (4.57)	5.4 ↑ (3.5)	1.18 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brasiliense
6.2%

Draw
16.8%

Cuiabá
77%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20%

26.1%

54%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.3%

25.2%

56%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brasiliense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-13.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Brasiliense's form might have worsened.

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+23%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Cuiabá's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brasiliense than the current prediction. (+13.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brasiliense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-21%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Cuiabá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Jonathan Cafu ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
60', 0 - 2, Gimenez L. ⚽,
77', 0 - 3, Jonathan Cafu ⚽,
84', 0 - 4, Andre Luis ⚽,
86', 1 - 4, Gustavao ⚽,

Preview

1st leg.

Brasiliense is in real good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cuiabá in the latest match got series victories and it is in excellent form (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Cuiabá could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Cuiabá is absolute favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Brasiliense won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brasiliense FC
Copa do Brasil
14.03.24	Brasiliense - Criciúma	1:2 penalties ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Brasiliense
10.03.24	Brasiliense - Samambaia	3:1 ✺
03.03.24	Brasiliense - Capital CF Ltda	1:0 ✺
25.02.24	Planaltina - Brasiliense	0:3 ✺
Copa do Brasil
21.02.24	Itabaiana - Brasiliense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LWWWW
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
17.03.24	Luverdense - Cuiabá	0:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
12.03.24	Portuguesa RJ - Cuiabá	0:1 penalties ✺
Brazilian Copa Verde
06.03.24	Cuiabá - Porto Velho	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
24.02.24	Cuiabá - Nova Mutum	2:2 ✺
Copa do Brasil
22.02.24	Noroeste - Cuiabá	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Verde
02.11.22	Cuiabá - Brasiliense	0:3
20.10.21	Cuiabá - Brasiliense	0:1 penalties

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