Match Info

Matogrossense - Round 7

Date: 31 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Arena Pantanal (Cuiabá)


	Cuiabá		Nova Mutum

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.15	11
	1.21	5.21	11.13
	1.23	5.25	12.33	Watch
	1.22	4.8	12
	1.25	5.55	11.7
	1.22	5	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.33)	5.16 ↑ (4.68)	11.69 ↑ (8.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cuiabá
74.5%

Draw
17.7%

Nova Mutum
7.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.3%

19.7%

11%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.5%

18.6%

10.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cuiabá's performance.

Nova Mutum has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nova Mutum than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Cuiabá - Nova Mutum Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
12', 1 - 0, Luiz Felipe ⚽,
35', 2 - 0, Mateus Santos ⚽,
45+2', 2 - 1, Yan Suhet ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
90+6', 🟥,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 9 in the zone Relegation ~ Matogrossense 2)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Nova Mutum may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cuiabá is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Cuiabá won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 15:7. (average 2.1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cuiabá won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:5. (average 2.2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
27.01.26	Cuiabá - União Rondonópolis	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Chapada - Cuiabá	2:2 ✺
21.01.26	Cuiabá - Sport Sinop	0:1 ✺
18.01.26	Mixto - Cuiabá	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Cuiabá - Operário Ltda	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WTLTW
- Nova Mutum EC
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
28.01.26	Nova Mutum - Chapada	3:2 ✺
25.01.26	Operário Ltda - Nova Mutum	3:1 ✺
22.01.26	Primavera AC - Nova Mutum	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Nova Mutum - Luverdense	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	União Rondonópolis - Nova Mutum	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
08.02.25	Cuiabá - Nova Mutum	5:0
Brazilian Copa FMF Mato Grosso
21.09.24	Cuiabá - Nova Mutum	0:1
Brazilian Campeonato Matogrossense
24.02.24	Cuiabá - Nova Mutum	2:2
16.02.23	Nova Mutum - Cuiabá	1:3
02.02.22	Cuiabá - Nova Mutum	3:2
31.03.21	Nova Mutum - Cuiabá	1:1
22.01.20	Cuiabá - Nova Mutum	1:0

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