Match Info

Champions League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: Kópavogsvöllur (Kópavogur)

Referee: Ladeback A. (Swe)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
Iceland	SÝN Sport, SÝN Sport Ísland
Poland	TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
World	Onefootball


	Breiðablik		Lech Poznań

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.8	2.25	Watch
	3.2	3.9	1.98
	2.88	3.95	2.12
	2.96	3.79	2.31
	2.60	3.65	2.46	Watch
	3.2	3.9	1.95
	2.99	3.87	2.23	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.93 ↓ (5.01)	3.84 ↓ (4.16)	2.19 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Breiðablik
32.2%

Draw
24.6%

Lech Poznań
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

23.1%

57.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.7%

23.6%

59%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Breiðablik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Breiðablik's performance.

Lech Poznań has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lech Poznań might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Breiðablik than the current prediction. (-13.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Breiðablik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+15.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lech Poznań could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.8%	17.6%	23.5%

Breiðablik - Lech Poznań Predictions

Users Predictions: 34 users predict this event. Breiðablik will win (votes: 20 - 58.8%). Lech will win (votes: 8 - 23.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 17.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Breiðablik: 42.3% – 75.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Breiðablik (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Lech (votes: 5 - 29.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Breiðablik (4.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -3 - Lech (16.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -2, 2nd Half - Lech (10.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.75, 1st Half - Lech (8.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2, 2nd Half - Lech (19.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2, 1st Half - Lech (28.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -3 - Lech (20.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Breiðablik (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 25 Selected Experts predict this event. Breiðablik (votes: 14 - 56%). Lech (votes: 11 - 44%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Einarsson A. (G) 6. Jonsson A. 44. Muminovic D. 4. Orrason A. 29. Hallsson G. 8. Einarsson V. 7. Gunnlaugsson H. (C) 10. Steindorsson K. 11. Bjarnason A. 23. Kristinsson K. 9. Omarsson O.	41. Mrozek B. (G) 20. Gumny R. 3. Douglas A. 27. Monka W. 4. Moutinho J. 23. Thordarson G. 6. Ouma T. 17. Szymczak F. 43. Kozubal A. 19. Fiabema B. 9. Ishak M. (C)
Substitutes
39. Agustsson B. 32. Bjorgvinsson K. 12. Bragason B. (G) 24. Gautason V. 31. Gunnleifsson G. 18. Ingvarsson D. 19. Jonsson K. 33. Snaeholm G. (G) 77. Thomsen T. 15. Thorsteinsson A. 28. Thorsteinsson B. 17. Valgeirsson V.	31. Bakowski K. (G) 8. Gholizadeh A. 15. Gurgul M. 24. Jagiello F. 56. Lisman K. 16. Milic A. 77. Palma L. 2. Pereira J. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G) 72. Skrzypczak M.
Coaches
Arnason H.	Frederiksen N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
11', Muminovic D. 🟨,
23', Bjarnason A. ↓, Valgeirsson V. ↑,
29', 0 - 1, Ishak M. ⚽, Szymczak F. (A),
39', Gumny R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kristinsson K. ↓, Thorsteinsson A. ↑,
46', Ishak M. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
62', Moutinho J. ↓, Gurgul M. ↑,
62', Kozubal A. ↓, Lisman K. ↑,
62', Szymczak F. ↓, Pereira J. ↑,
72', Steindorsson K. ↓, Jonsson K. ↑,
72', Einarsson V. ↓, Thomsen T. ↑,
75', Thordarson G. ↓, Skrzypczak M. ↑,
86', Omarsson O. ↓, Gautason V. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 1-7. 2nd leg.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Lech has had a series of home games.

Lech could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Breiðablik won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Breiðablik UBK
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
26.07.25	KR Reykjavík - Breiðablik	1:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.07.25	Lech Poznań - Breiðablik	7:1 ✺
Icelandic Besta-deild karla
19.07.25	Breiðablik - Vestri	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
15.07.25	Breiðablik - Egnatia Rrogozhinë	5:0 ✺
08.07.25	Egnatia Rrogozhinë - Breiðablik	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLWWL
- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
26.07.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Lech Poznań	3:4 ✺
UEFA Champions League
22.07.25	Lech Poznań - Breiðablik	7:1 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.07.25	Lech Poznań - Cracovia	1:4 ✺
Polish Super Cup
13.07.25	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
05.07.25	Lech Poznań - Baník Ostrava	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
22.07.25	Lech Poznań - Breiðablik	7:1

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