Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 30

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadion Poznan (Poznań)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	FOX Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 4
Canada	beIN Connect
Croatia	Arena Sport 10, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, TVP 2, TVP Sport app
Spain	Gol Play, GolStadium
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz


	Lech Poznań		Legia Warsaw

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.5	3.4	Watch
	1.98	3.55	3.35
	2.05	3.7	3.66
	1.95	3.79	3.63	Watch
	1.95	3.4	3.4
	1.94	3.58	3.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (2.05)	3.59 ↓ (3.64)	3.51 ↑ (3.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lech Poznań
47.4%

Draw
26%

Legia Warsaw
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.3%

26.1%

27.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.9%

25.2%

26.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Legia Warsaw has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Legia Warsaw than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
41. Mrozek B. (C) 2. Pereira J. 20. Gumny R. 27. Monka W. 15. Gurgul M. 6. Ouma T. 43. Kozubal A. 8. Gholizadeh A. 10. Walemark P. 14. Bengtsson L. 9. Ishak M.	89. Hindrich O. (G) 7. Wszolek P. 91. Piatkowski K. 8. Augustyniak R. (C) 12. Pankov R. 23. Kun P. 82. Urbanski K. 22. Elitim J. 44. Szymanski D. 29. Rajovic M. 9. Adamski R.
Substitutes
7. Agnero Y. 1. Andreev P. (G) 11. Hakans D. 88. Ismaheel T. 24. Jagiello F. 90. Janyszka H. 16. Milic A. 4. Moutinho J. 22. Murawski R. 77. Palma L. 33. Pruchniewski M. (G)	6. Arreiol H. 55. Jedrzejczyk A. 67. Kapustka B. 99. Kovacik S. 77. Krasniqi E. 56. Leszczynski J. 18. Nsame J. 13. Reca A. 1. Tobiasz K. (G) 53. Urbanski W. 20. Zewlakow J.
Coaches
Frederiksen N.	Papszun M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Gholizadeh A. ⚽, Walemark P. (A),
21', Augustyniak R. 🟥,
22', Adamski R. ↓, Jedrzejczyk A. ↑,
31', 2 - 0, Ishak M. ⚽, Gurgul M. (A),
38', 3 - 0, Gurgul M. ⚽,
42', 4 - 0, Ishak M. ⚽, Pereira J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Urbanski K. ↓, Kapustka B. ↑,
61', Kapustka B. 🟨,
65', Kozubal A. ↓, Jagiello F. ↑,
65', Walemark P. ↓, Hakans D. ↑,
65', Gholizadeh A. ↓, Palma L. ↑,
65', Szymanski D. ↓, Kovacik S. ↑,
65', Kun P. ↓, Urbanski W. ↑,
72', Pankov R. ↓, Reca A. ↑,
78', Ouma T. ↓, Murawski R. ↑,
86', Pereira J. ↓, Janyszka H. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lech won 2.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

Lech may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Lech will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lech won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 20:18. (average 1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Lech won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 13:9. (average 1.2:0.8).

Outrights of Polish Ekstraklasa for now

Lech Poznan: 47.5% Legia: 13.85%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Lech Poznan	9	7	1	1	21:8	13	22
3	Legia	9	5	4	0	19:8	11	19

Last Results with these Odds

Lech Poznań - the odds 2.05 are the expected chance of winning is 46.32%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lech Poznań
Polish Ekstraklasa
18.04.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
12.04.26	Lech Poznań - GKS Katowice	3:3 ✺
04.04.26	Jagiellonia Białystok - Lech Poznań	0:0 ✺
22.03.26	Lech Poznań - Termalica Nieciecza	4:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
19.03.26	Shakhtar Donetsk - Lech Poznań	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WTTWW
- Legia Warsaw
Polish Ekstraklasa
17.04.26	Legia Warsaw - Zagłębie Lubin	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Legia Warsaw - Górnik Zabrze	1:1 ✺
06.04.26	Pogoń Szczecin - Legia Warsaw	0:2 ✺
22.03.26	Legia Warsaw - Raków Częstochowa	1:1 ✺
13.03.26	Radomiak Radom - Legia Warsaw	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
26.10.25	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:0
Polish Super Cup
13.07.25	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	1:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.05.25	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:1
10.11.24	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	5:2
12.05.24	Lech Poznań - Legia Warsaw	1:2
12.11.23	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	0:0
16.04.23	Legia Warsaw - Lech Poznań	2:2

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