Match Info

WSL 2 - Round 5

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Ashton Gate Stadium (Bristol)


	Bristol City		Durham

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.8	4.65
	1.6	3.93	4.82
	1.55	4.06	5.26	Watch
	1.61	3.78	4.71
	1.89	3.4	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.65 ↓ (1.89)	3.79 ↑ (3.38)	4.61 ↑ (3.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bristol City
55.8%

Draw
24.2%

Durham
19.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48%

26.8%

25.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

25.1%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bristol City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bristol City's performance.

Durham has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Durham might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bristol City than the current prediction. (-10.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bristol City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Durham than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Durham could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Bristol City - Durham Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bentley F. (G) 41. Bennett H. 21. Dafeur M. 19. Farrugia M. 9. Hardy R. 5. Ingle S. 3. Lawley G. 8. Losada V. (C) 24. Saez C. 16. Syme E. 14. Ward M.	35. Sheppard C. (G) 2. Ayre G. 3. Briggs L. 20. Foster M. 7. Hepple B. 8. Lambert M. 25. McFarland L. 15. Pritchard P. 21. Stobbs A. 4. Toland T. 5. Wilson S. (C)
Substitutes
45. Hebard I. 63. Hibbert-Johnson O. 23. Jones V. 10. Lloyd-Smith L. 18. Meena M. 20. Morgan E. 99. Williams N. (G) 17. Ziu J.	10. Blake H. 16. Ede G. 27. Jones A. 13. King A. (G) 6. Robson S. 14. Salicki B. 17. Speckmaier M. 9. Watson L. 19. Wilson E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
27', 1 - 0, Ingle S. ⚽, Lawley G. (A),
33', Wilson S. 🟨,
39', Lambert M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', McFarland L. ↓, Blake H. ↑,
46', Wilson S. ↓, Salicki B. ↑,
48', 2 - 0, Losada V. ⚽, Syme E. (A),
59', 2 - 1, Lambert M. ⚽, Blake H. (A),
63', Salicki B. 🟨,
66', Losada V. ↓, Lloyd-Smith L. ↑,
66', Dafeur M. ↓, Meena M. ↑,
68', Ayre G. 🟨,
72', Stobbs A. ↓, Jones A. ↑,
78', Ward M. ↓, Morgan E. ↑,
78', Syme E. ↓, Jones V. ↑,
87', Toland T. ↓, Watson L. ↑,
87', Farrugia M. ↓, Hebard I. ↑,
90', Briggs L. ↓, Robson S. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 5 and 8).

In recent matches, Bristol City has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Durham is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Durham may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Bristol City is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bristol City won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:5. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Bristol City won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 2.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bristol City WFC
English WSL 2
27.09.25	Bristol City - Nottingham Forest	1:2 ✺
English League Cup Women
24.09.25	Birmingham City LFC - Bristol City	3:2 penalties ✺
English WSL 2
21.09.25	Southampton - Bristol City	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Bristol City - Portsmouth	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Birmingham City LFC - Bristol City	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 LLWWL
- Durham WFC
English WSL 2
28.09.25	Durham - Crystal Palace	1:1 ✺
English League Cup Women
24.09.25	Durham - Sheffield United	1:2 penalties ✺
English WSL 2
19.09.25	Sunderland - Durham	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Durham - Charlton Athletic	1:2 ✺
07.09.25	Portsmouth - Durham	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English WSL 2
04.05.25	Durham - Bristol City	2:0
15.12.24	Bristol City - Durham	5:0
04.12.22	Durham - Bristol City	1:1
13.02.22	Durham - Bristol City	0:3
26.09.21	Bristol City - Durham	0:2

Bristol City - Durham: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide