Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 6

Date: 12 October 2025, Sunday


	Burgos Promesas		Atlético Astorga

	1	X	2
	2.58	3.15	2.45
	2.61	3.33	2.58
	1.16	5.38	25.00	Watch
	2.65	3.22	2.51
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↑ (2.19)	3.77 ↑ (3.22)	8.14 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgos Promesas
53.4%

Draw
31.9%

Atlético Astorga
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

28.7%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

25.6%

32.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgos Promesas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Burgos Promesas's performance.

Atlético Astorga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlético Astorga might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burgos Promesas than the current prediction. (-15.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Burgos Promesas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Astorga than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlético Astorga could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Burgos Promesas - Atlético Astorga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', 1 - 0, Ricoy L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 15 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burgos Promesas won 1.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Atlético Astorga may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Burgos Promesas won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Burgos Promesas won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 6:5. (average 1.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgos Promesas
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
05.10.25	Real Oviedo B - Burgos Promesas	5:2 ✺
27.09.25	Burgos Promesas - Langreo	1:1 ✺
21.09.25	Rayo Cantabria - Burgos Promesas	0:0 ✺
14.09.25	Burgos Promesas - UD Ourense	1:1 ✺
07.09.25	Deportivo A Coruña B - Burgos Promesas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTTL
- Atlético Astorga
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
04.10.25	Atlético Astorga - Deportivo A Coruña B	0:4 ✺
28.09.25	Valladolid B - Atlético Astorga	1:3 ✺
20.09.25	Atlético Astorga - Coruxo	0:2 ✺
14.09.25	Salamanca - Atlético Astorga	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Atlético Astorga - Real Ávila	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 8
05.04.25	Atlético Astorga - Burgos Promesas	1:1
17.11.24	Burgos Promesas - Atlético Astorga	3:1
20.01.24	Burgos Promesas - Atlético Astorga	0:2
23.04.21	Burgos Promesas - Atlético Astorga	1:1
28.12.19	Atlético Astorga - Burgos Promesas	1:0
27.01.19	Burgos Promesas - Atlético Astorga	2:1
08.09.18	Atlético Astorga - Burgos Promesas	3:0

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