Match Info

Paulista U20 - Round 7

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday


	Capivariano U20		Referência U20

	1	X	2
	1.60	3.60	4.50
	1.53	3.75	5.20
	1.59	3.73	4.97
	1.67	3.61	4.61	Watch
	1.54	3.6	4.9
	1.66	3.93	4.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.53)	3.7 ↓ (3.75)	4.78 ↓ (5.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Capivariano U20
56.6%

Draw
24.4%

Referência U20
18.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.7%

24%

17.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

22.7%

16.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Capivariano U20 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Referência U20 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Capivariano U20 than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Capivariano U20, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Referência U20 than the current prediction. (-2.5%)

Capivariano U20 - Referência U20 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
37', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
76', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista U20 (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 14 in the zone Relegation).

Recent performances by Capivariano U20 have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Referência U20 has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Capivariano U20 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Capivariano U20 is considered a favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Capivariano U20
Brazilian Paulista U20
11.07.26	Palmeiras U20 - Capivariano U20	2:2 ✺
03.07.26	Capivariano U20 - Ituano U20	2:2 ✺
28.06.26	Red Bull Bragantino U20 - Capivariano U20	3:1 ✺
12.06.26	XV de Jaú U20 - Capivariano U20	0:0 ✺
05.06.26	Capivariano U20 - Sfera U20	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TTLTW
- Referência FC U20
Brazilian Paulista U20
05.07.26	Referência U20 - Red Bull Bragantino U20	1:4 ✺
26.06.26	Referência U20 - Grêmio Prudente U20	1:2 ✺
12.06.26	Ituano U20 - Referência U20	1:1 ✺
05.06.26	Referência U20 - Água Santa U20	1:2 ✺
29.05.26	Flamengo de Guarulhos U20 - Referência U20	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LLTLL

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