Match Info

Date: 28 March 2021, Sunday


	Carapinheirense		Vitória de Sernache

	1	X	2
	2.6	2.85	2.75
	2.6	2.8	2.75
	2.78	2.82	2.98
	2.78	2.43	3.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.69 ↑ (2.44)	2.73 ↓ (3.24)	2.9 ↑ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carapinheirense
34.3%

Draw
33.9%

Vitória de Sernache
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

28.2%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.5%

19.9%

48.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carapinheirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

Vitória de Sernache has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carapinheirense than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carapinheirense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória de Sernache than the current prediction. (+16.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Vitória de Sernache could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

Carapinheirense is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Sernache is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Carapinheirense could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Carapinheirense have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph bor both teams are almost equal.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Carapinheirense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carapinheirense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
14.03.21	SB Castelo Branco - Carapinheirense	0:0 ✺
06.03.21	Condeixa - Carapinheirense	2:0 ✺
21.02.21	Oliveira Hospital - Carapinheirense	2:0 ✺
16.02.21	Carapinheirense - SB Castelo Branco	0:2 ✺
07.02.21	Sertanense - Carapinheirense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TLLLT
- Vitória de Sernache
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
21.03.21	Vitória de Sernache - SB Castelo Branco	0:0 ✺
07.03.21	Vitória de Sernache - Marinhense	2:0 ✺
28.02.21	Leiria - Vitória de Sernache	1:0 ✺
21.02.21	Vitória de Sernache - Alcains	1:0 ✺
10.02.21	Oliveira Hospital - Vitória de Sernache	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 TWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
18.10.20	Vitória de Sernache - Carapinheirense	1:1

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