Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 17

Date: 25 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estádio Municipal Nuno Álvares Pereira (Cernache do Bonjardim)


	Vitória de Sernache		SB Castelo Branco

	1	X	2
	2	3	3.5
	2.09	3.05	3.5
	2.11	3.01	3.5	Watch
	2.05	2.9	3.3
	2.1	3.17	3.48
	1.68	3.35	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.68)	3.08 ↓ (3.35)	3.6 ↓ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitória de Sernache
45.3%

Draw
29.5%

SB Castelo Branco
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.8%

26.5%

20.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.2%

28.7%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitória de Sernache has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Vitória de Sernache's form might have worsened.

SB Castelo Branco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitória de Sernache than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Vitória de Sernache, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for SB Castelo Branco than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for SB Castelo Branco, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Vitória de Sernache - SB Castelo Branco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sernache won 2.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

In this match, Sernache is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Sernache won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Sernache won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	SB Castelo Branco	4	2	0	2	7:9	-2	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Vitória de Sernache
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
21.03.26	Vitória de Sernache - Samora Correia	1:0 ✺
15.03.26	Peniche - Vitória de Sernache	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Vitória de Sernache - Oliveira Hospital	0:1 ✺
28.02.26	Marinhense - Vitória de Sernache	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Vitória de Sernache - SC Lusitânia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WWLTW
- SB Castelo Branco
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
21.03.26	SB Castelo Branco - Oliveira Hospital	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	Marinhense - SB Castelo Branco	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	SB Castelo Branco - SC Lusitânia	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	União da Serra - SB Castelo Branco	2:0 ✺
21.02.26	Lajense - SB Castelo Branco	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
14.09.25	SB Castelo Branco - Vitória de Sernache	0:2
09.03.24	Vitória de Sernache - SB Castelo Branco	1:1
12.11.23	SB Castelo Branco - Vitória de Sernache	3:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
23.02.22	Vitória de Sernache - SB Castelo Branco	2:1
19.09.21	SB Castelo Branco - Vitória de Sernache	1:1
21.03.21	Vitória de Sernache - SB Castelo Branco	0:0
15.11.20	SB Castelo Branco - Vitória de Sernache	3:1

Vitória de Sernache - SB Castelo Branco: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide