Match Info

III Liga - Group III - Round 14

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Carina Gubin		Sparta Katowice

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.90	1.55
	4.90	3.75	1.52
	4.70	3.88	1.56
	5.2	4.03	1.53	Watch
	4.65	3.80	1.54
	4.76	3.95	1.55	Watch
	3.36	3.5	1.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.62 ↑ (3.36)	3.83 ↑ (3.5)	1.58 ↓ (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 9.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carina Gubin
19.5%

Draw
23.5%

Sparta Katowice
56.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.3%

25.3%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

24.9%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carina Gubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Carina Gubin's form might have worsened.

Sparta Katowice has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sparta Katowice's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carina Gubin than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Carina Gubin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sparta Katowice than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sparta Katowice, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Carina Gubin - Sparta Katowice Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 3)

Preview

A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 16th in the Relegation and 2nd in the Promotion - Division 2 Promotion - Playoffs).

Carina Gubin has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Sparta Katowice is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Sparta Katowice holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Carina Gubin has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:2 (averaging 1:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Carina Gubin against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 1:1 goals.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	BKS Sparta Katowice	14	9	3	2	24:9	15	30
17	Carina Gubin	14	3	3	8	12:26	-14	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carina Gubin
Polish Division 3 - Group III
17.10.26	Ślęza Wrocław - Carina Gubin	1:3 ✺
10.10.26	Carina Gubin - LKS Goczałkowice-Zdrój	0:0 ✺
03.10.26	Stal Brzeg - Carina Gubin	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Carina Gubin - Stilon Gorzów Wielkopolski	1:3 ✺
18.09.26	Zagłębie 2 Lubin - Carina Gubin	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTWLL
- Sparta Katowice
Polish Division 3 - Group III
17.10.26	Sparta Katowice - ROW Rybnik	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Karkonosze Jelenia Góra - Sparta Katowice	1:0 ✺
03.10.26	Sparta Katowice - Warta Gorzów Wielkopolski	1:1 ✺
26.09.26	Miedź Legnica 2 - Sparta Katowice	0:2 ✺
19.09.26	Sparta Katowice - Kluczbork	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group III
18.03.26	Carina Gubin - Sparta Katowice	1:1
16.08.25	Sparta Katowice - Carina Gubin	1:1

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