Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 8

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Castalia (Castellón de la Plana)

Referee: Sanchez J. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion 2, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2, Orange Futbol 2
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Castellón		Sporting de Gijón

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.7	4	Watch
	1.87	3.5	3.7
	1.88	3.6	3.7
	1.92	3.84	4.01
	1.91	3.72	3.64	Watch
	1.89	3.65	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (1.99)	3.67 ↓ (3.7)	3.8 ↑ (3.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castellón
49.8%

Draw
25.5%

Sporting de Gijón
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.1%

25.3%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

21.9%

32%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Sporting de Gijón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Castellón that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sporting de Gijón than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sporting de Gijón could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Castellón - Sporting de Gijón Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Castellón will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Sporting de Gijón will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Castellón: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Sporting de Gijón (3.72) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Castellón will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Castellón (votes: 3 - 75%). Sporting de Gijón (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Matthys R. (G) 22. Mellot J. 17. Ruiz S. (C) 5. Jimenez A. 12. Alcazar 8. Barri 25. Ronaldo 16. Cipenga B. 21. Calatrava A. 23. Mamah K. 19. Jakobsen A.	1. Yanez R. (G) 2. Rosas G. 15. Vazquez P. 4. Perrin L. 5. Sanchez D. 21. Loum M. 14. Corredera A. 17. Dubasin J. 10. Gelabert Pina C. 7. Campos G. 19. Otero J.
Substitutes
1. Abedzadeh A. (G) 9. Camara O. 29. De Nipoti T. 6. Doue M. 15. Gerenabarrena B. 7. Mabil A. 20. Markanich N. 18. Santiago P. 30. Selles D. 24. Serpeta 10. Suero I. 26. Tincho	9. Caicedo J. 16. Cortes O. 18. Coundoul A. 3. Garcia P. 40. Guillermo I. 22. Kembo Y. 6. Martin N. 28. Mbemba P. 35. Moreno G. (G) 32. Prendes E. O. 24. Smith J. 20. Vazquez K.
Coaches
Hernandez P.	Garitano A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
9', 1 - 0, Jakobsen A. ⚽, Cipenga B. (A),
10', 1 - 1, Dubasin J. ⚽, Otero J. (A),
43', 2 - 1, Calatrava A. (Pen),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Loum M. ↓, Kembo Y. ↑,
46', Sanchez D. ↓, Garcia P. ↑,
47', Ruiz S. 🟨,
57', Campos G. 🟨,
60', Corredera A. 🟨,
62', Mamah K. ↓, Santiago P. ↑,
62', Barri ↓, Doue M. ↑,
65', Kembo Y. 🟨,
66', Perrin L. ↓, Cortes O. ↑,
66', Corredera A. ↓, Smith J. ↑,
70', Alcazar 🟨,
71', Alcazar ↓, Tincho ↑,
77', Cortes O. 🟨,
82', Vazquez P. 🟨,
82', Ronaldo ↓, Gerenabarrena B. ↑,
82', Jakobsen A. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
86', Campos G. ↓, Coundoul A. ↑,
88', 3 - 1, Camara O. ⚽, Tincho (A),
90+1', Smith J. 🟨,
90+2', Tincho 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 14 and 13).

Castellón has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sporting de Gijón is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Castellón is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Castellón: Aurelio D. (Knee Injury) De Nipoti T. (Inactive) Sienra A. (Injury)

There will not play in Sporting de Gijón: Bernal J. (Injury) Curbelo E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Castellón: Brignani F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sporting de Gijón: Otero J. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Castellón won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Castellón won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Sporting de Gijón - the odds 3.38 are the expected chance of winning is 27.65%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
29.09.25	Leganés - Castellón	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Leonesa - Castellón	1:3 ✺
14.09.25	Castellón - Ceuta	3:3 ✺
05.09.25	Córdoba - Castellón	2:1 ✺
30.08.25	Castellón - Zaragoza	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWTLT
- Sporting de Gijón
Spanish LaLiga2
28.09.25	Sporting de Gijón - Albacete Balompié	3:4 ✺
20.09.25	Almería - Sporting de Gijón	2:1 ✺
14.09.25	Sporting de Gijón - Burgos	2:3 ✺
06.09.25	Deportivo A Coruña - Sporting de Gijón	1:0 ✺
29.08.25	Sporting de Gijón - Leonesa	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
05.05.25	Castellón - Sporting de Gijón	4:3
14.10.24	Sporting de Gijón - Castellón	2:1
24.01.21	Castellón - Sporting de Gijón	2:0
02.11.20	Sporting de Gijón - Castellón	1:0

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