Match Info

Date: 11 April 2021, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Castrovillari		ACR Messina

	1	X	2
	4.5	2.6	2
	4.2	3.1	1.8
	4.4	2.6	2.01
	4.54	2.59	2.02
	4	3.25	1.8
	3.66	3.08	2.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.22 ↑ (4.08)	2.87 ↓ (3.24)	1.95 ↑ (1.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castrovillari
21.6%

Draw
31.7%

ACR Messina
46.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

22.2%

28%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.7%

22.3%

62.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castrovillari has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ACR Messina has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castrovillari than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for ACR Messina than the current prediction. (+15.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that ACR Messina could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

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Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 13 in the zone Serie D to Group A and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Recent matches Castrovillari is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

ACR Messina in the last match got series victories and it is in a very good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

ACR Messina could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match ACR Messina is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Castrovillari won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Castrovillari won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- ASD Castrovillari Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group I
07.04.21	Castrovillari - Roccella	2:0
01.04.21	Città di SantAgata - Castrovillari	2:1 ✺
28.03.21	Castrovillari - Troina	0:0 ✺
21.03.21	Rende - Castrovillari	1:1 ✺
14.03.21	Cittanovese - Castrovillari	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLTTW
- ACR Messina
Italian Serie D - Group I
01.04.21	ACR Messina - Roccella	5:1 ✺
28.03.21	Gelbison Cilento - ACR Messina	1:1 ✺
21.03.21	ACR Messina - FC Messina	1:0
07.03.21	Acireale - ACR Messina	0:1 ✺
28.02.21	ACR Messina - Rotonda	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group I
20.12.20	ACR Messina - Castrovillari	1:0
26.01.20	Castrovillari - ACR Messina	1:1
22.09.19	ACR Messina - Castrovillari	3:1
17.02.19	Castrovillari - ACR Messina	0:0
19.12.18	ACR Messina - Castrovillari	1:0

Castrovillari - ACR Messina

Match Info

Current Win Probability

Preview

Form

Latest Head to Head

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