Match Info

BRAZIL: Copa do Nordeste - Round 2

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Ceará		CS Alagoano

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.75	6.5
	1.44	3.9	7
	1.41	3.95	7.01
	1.42	4.03	7.48	Watch
	1.4	3.8	8
	1.37	4.1	8	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.43)	3.92 ↓ (4.04)	7.33 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
64.2%

Draw
23.3%

CS Alagoano
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.2%

22.7%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.5%

21.6%

12.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Ceará have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

CS Alagoano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

The ML Model estimate for CS Alagoano aligns with the current prediction.

Ceará - CS Alagoano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 20. Diego 33. Eder 14. Eric 27. Galeano A. 97. Lourenco (C) 10. Lucas Mugni 8. Matheus Araujo 7. Pedro Henrique 28. Recalde J. 23. Willian Machado	1. Georgemy (G) 7. Alvaro 10. Brayann 2. Cedric 11. Guilherme Cachoeira 5. Gustavo Nicola 19. Igor Bahia 3. Islan 6. Roberto (C) 8. Vander 4. Wanderson
Substitutes
77. Fernandinho 16. Fernando Miguel (G) 88. Fernando Sobral 80. Guilherme Luiz 17. Joao Victor 18. Keiller (G) 3. Marllon 26. Richardson 71. Silva G. 82. Ze Neto	16. Buga 14. Enzo 12. Gabriel Felix (G) 18. Gustavinho 13. Matheus Santos 15. Raphinha 9. Robinho 20. Silas 17. Wellington Nunes

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
39', Roberto ↓, Enzo ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Pedro Henrique ↓, Fernandinho ↑,
46', Lucas Mugni ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
68', Enzo 🟨,
69', Eric ↓, Joao Victor ↑,
71', Gustavo Nicola ↓, Buga ↑,
71', Alvaro ↓, Wellington Nunes ↑,
77', Buga 🟨,
77', Recalde J. ↓, William ↑,
83', Eder 🟨,
85', 1 - 0, Diego ⚽,
87', Matheus Araujo ↓, Richardson ↑,
89', Brayann ↓, Gustavinho ↑,
90+1', Willian Machado 🟨,
90+2', Gustavinho 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ceará won 3.

Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.

Ceará could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ceará is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Ceará to win the game is with odds 1.57.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Ceará won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10:2 (average 1.7:0.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceará won 4 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 9:0 (average 2.3:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
02.02.25	Ceará - Barbalha	5:0 ✺
29.01.25	Ceará - Iguatu	1:0 ✺
26.01.25	Ferroviário Fortaleza - Ceará	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
22.01.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Ceará	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Cearense
18.01.25	Ceará - Tirol	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWLW
- CS Alagoano
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
05.02.25	CS Alagoano - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
01.02.25	CS Alagoano - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0 ✺
29.01.25	Coruripe - CS Alagoano	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	CRB Maceio - CS Alagoano	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
22.01.25	Coruripe - CS Alagoano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.03.22	Ceará - CS Alagoano	2:0
31.03.21	Ceará - CS Alagoano	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
22.09.19	CS Alagoano - Ceará	1:0
28.04.19	Ceará - CS Alagoano	4:0
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
20.03.18	CS Alagoano - Ceará	1:1
30.01.18	Ceará - CS Alagoano	1:0

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