Match Info

National League South - Round 5

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday

Location: Melbourne Stadium (Chelmsford)


	Chelmsford City		Maidenhead United

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.40	3.20
	2.02	3.25	3.35
	2	3.67	3.42
	2.04	3.65	3.28	Watch
	1.96	3.55	3.2
	1.99	3.44	3.26
	2	3.2	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.99 ↓ (2.06)	3.45 ↓ (3.5)	3.28 ↑ (3.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
45.7%

Draw
26.4%

Maidenhead United
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

26.5%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.7%

26.1%

28.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Maidenhead United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

The ML Model estimate for Chelmsford City aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Maidenhead United than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Chelmsford City - Maidenhead United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', Achuba M. 🟥,
45+1', 1 - 0, Alexander G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Maidenhead may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chelmsford has had a series of away games.

Chelmsford will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:17. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelmsford won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).

Outrights of English National League South for now

Chelmsford: 5.21% Maidenhead: 2.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Maidenhead	10	3	4	3	12:11	1	13
16	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9:8	1	11

Last Results with these Odds

Maidenhead United - the odds 3.25 are the expected chance of winning is 28.52%, but this team recently wins 17% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
22.08.26	Folkestone Invicta - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Chelmsford City - Truro City	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
28.07.26	Dartford - Chelmsford City	Canceled ✺
14.07.26	Canvey Island - Chelmsford City	0:1 ✺
11.07.26	Bishops Stortford - Chelmsford City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TT?WW
- Maidenhead United
English National League South
22.08.26	Maidenhead United - Farnborough	1:1 ✺
18.08.26	Hemel Hempstead Town - Maidenhead United	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Maidenhead United - Dorking Wanderers	0:0 ✺
08.08.26	Truro City - Maidenhead United	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Brackley Town - Maidenhead United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
11.04.26	Chelmsford City - Maidenhead United	1:1
06.09.25	Maidenhead United - Chelmsford City	2:1
06.03.17	Chelmsford City - Maidenhead United	0:1
20.08.16	Maidenhead United - Chelmsford City	1:0
12.03.16	Chelmsford City - Maidenhead United	4:1
19.09.15	Maidenhead United - Chelmsford City	1:0
21.03.15	Chelmsford City - Maidenhead United	1:1

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