Match Info

AFC Asian Cup U23 - Play Offs - Final

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday

Location: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium (Jeddah)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6
Croatia	SportKlub 3
India	FanCode, FanCode
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola, Astro Go
Mexico	Disney+
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Russia	TV Start
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
International	Onefootball


	China U23		Japan U23

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.95	3.7	1.6
	5.3	3.76	1.83
	5.13	4.1	1.6	Watch
	4.2	3.4	1.67
	4.56	3.59	1.75	Watch
	4.75	3.33	1.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.82 ↓ (5.11)	3.65 ↑ (3)	1.69 ↑ (1.68)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 0.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

China U23
19.3%

Draw
25.5%

Japan U23
55.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

17.4%

29.6%

52.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17%

28.9%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

China U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Japan U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for China U23 than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Japan U23 than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	14.3%	85.7%

China U23 - Japan U23 Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Japan U23 (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25, 1st Half - Japan U23 (1.68) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - China U23 (2.25) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Japan U23 will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. China U23 (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Japan U23 (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Li H. (G) Qingdao West Coast 23. Yang A. Qingdao West Coast 5. Liu Haofan Zhejiang Professional 15. Peng Xiao Shandong Taishan 4. Yusup Umidjan Shanghai Port 2. Hu H. Chengdu Rongcheng 8. Iminqari M. Chengdu Rongcheng 6. Xu Bin Qingdao West Coast 20. Li Zhenquan Chongqing Tonglianglong 7. Xiang Yuwang Chongqing Tonglianglong 10. Wang Y. Zhejiang Professional	23. Araki R. (G) Gamba Osaka 16. Koizumi K. 4. Nagano S. Gainare Tottori 5. Ichihara R. Omiya Ardija 2. Umeki R. Imabari 8. Ozeki Y. Kawasaki Frontale 6. Ogura K. 10. Sato R. Okayama 20. Furuya S. Tokyo International University 9. Nwadike Uchebrian S. Toin University 11. Yokoyama Y. Cerezo Osaka
Substitutes
9. Abduweli Behram Shenzhen Xinpengcheng 21. Bao Shengxin Zhejiang Professional 17. Bao Shimeng Shanghai Port 18. Chen Zeshi Shandong Taishan 3. He Yiran Changchun Yatai 12. Huo Shenping (G) Zhejiang Professional 11. Kuai Jiwen Shanghai Port 1. Luan Yi (G) Shijiazhuang Gongfu 22. Mao W. Dalian Yingbo 13. Wang B. Den Bosch 14. Yang Haoyu Shanghai Shenhua 19. Zhang A. Zhejiang Professional	12. Hamasaki T. (G) 13. Ishibashi S. Shonan Bellmare 7. Ishiwatari N. Iwaki 14. Kawai T. Iwata 1. Kobayashi M. (G) FC Tokyo 18. Kume H. 19. Michiwaki Y. SK Beveren 15. Mori S. Nagoya Grampus 22. Okabe H. Toyo University 21. Sekitomi K. Yokohama F. Marinos 17. Shimamoto Y. Shimizu S-Pulse 3. Tsuchiya K. Kawasaki Frontale

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, Ozeki Y. ⚽, Furuya S. (A),
20', 0 - 2, Ogura K. ⚽,
45', Ogura K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', 0 - 3, Sato R. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Xu Bin ↓, Chen Zeshi ↑,
62', Iminqari M. ↓, Wang B. ↑,
62', Li Zhenquan ↓, Bao Shengxin ↑,
62', Ozeki Y. ↓, Shimamoto Y. ↑,
76', 0 - 4, Ogura K. ⚽,
78', Xiang Yuwang ↓, Abduweli Behram ↑,
78', Yokoyama Y. ↓, Ishibashi S. ↑,
78', Ogura K. ↓, Okabe H. ↑,
78', Nwadike Uchebrian S. ↓, Michiwaki Y. ↑,
81', Abduweli Behram 🟨,
85', Wang Y. ↓, Kuai Jiwen ↑,
85', Sato R. ↓, Ishiwatari N. ↑,

Preview

China U23 is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Japan U23 is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

China U23 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Japan U23 is the team to beat.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, China U23 won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- China U23
AFC Asian Cup U23
20.01.26	Vietnam U23 - China U23	0:3 ✺
17.01.26	Uzbekistan U23 - China U23	0:1 penalties ✺
14.01.26	Thailand U23 - China U23	0:0 ✺
11.01.26	China U23 - Australia U23	1:0 ✺
08.01.26	Iraq U23 - China U23	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.2 WWTWT
- Japan U23
AFC Asian Cup U23
20.01.26	Japan U23 - South Korea U23	1:0 ✺
16.01.26	Japan U23 - Jordan U23	2:1 penalties ✺
13.01.26	Japan U23 - Qatar U23	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	United Arab Emirates U23 - Japan U23	0:3 ✺
07.01.26	Japan U23 - Syria U23	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Asian Cup U23
16.04.24	Japan U23 - China U23	1:0
23.07.17	Japan U23 - China U23	1:2

China U23 - Japan U23: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide