Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 27 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio León (León)

Referee: Peinado Aguirre Y. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	FOX+, FOX One
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Club León		Juárez

	1	X	2
	1.49	4.10	6.50	Watch
	1.51	4.20	5.75
	1.56	4.00	5.00	Watch
	1.55	4.37	6.33
	1.55	4.17	6	Watch
	1.52	4.30	6.25
	1.54	4.13	6.55	Watch
	1.50	4.30	6.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↓ (1.61)	4.2 ↑ (4.02)	6.05 ↑ (4.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Club León
61.9%

Draw
22.5%

Juárez
15.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58%

23.2%

18.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7%

22.2%

17.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Club León has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Juárez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club León than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Juárez than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	14.3%	14.3%

Club León - Juárez Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. León will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Juárez will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. León (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - León (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.25 - over (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. León (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
181. Martinez I. (G) 7. Moreno I. 14. Romana J. 3. Guevara J. 5. Vegas S. 29. Rodriguez I. (C) 16. Cortizo J. 203. Lara J. 6. Beltran Cruz F. 11. Diaz I. 27. Cambindo D.	1. Jurado S. (C) 33. Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 3. Murillo J. 2. Sepulveda G. 26. Pina D. 4. Mayorga A. 9. Madson 6. Monchu 183. Rodriguez L. 19. Estupinan O. 21. Ricardinho
Substitutes
19. Alvarado A. 25. Bellon P. 4. Colula B. 8. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 247. Espinosa I. 15. Fierro S. 12. Gonzalez J. (G) 18. Guerra E. 26. Reyes S. 33. Villegas A.	20. Aquino J. 201. Carmona J. 17. Dupuy L. 7. Fulgencio R. 8. Guilherme Castilho 14. Lopez E. 23. Ortega H. 13. Rodrigo Dourado 27. Ruiz G. (G) 16. Sigala J.
Coaches
Gandolfi J.	Lema G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
3', Vegas S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Cortizo J. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
46', Vegas S. ↓, Reyes S. ↑,
53', Guevara J. 🟨,
58', Diaz I. ↓, Guerra E. ↑,
58', Beltran Cruz F. ↓, Alvarado A. ↑,
62', Mayorga A. ↓, Lopez E. ↑,
62', Ricardinho ↓, Fulgencio R. ↑,
76', 1 - 0, Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. (Own goal),
79', Murillo J. 🟨,
81', Sepulveda G. ↓, Dupuy L. ↑,
83', Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. 🟨,
83', Cambindo D. ↓, Bellon P. ↑,
90+4', 1 - 1, Estupinan O. (Penalty Awarded),
90+5', Nevarez Pulgarin F. J. ↓, Aquino J. ↑,
90+5', Madson ↓, Ortega H. ↑,
90+9', 2 - 1, Alvarado A. ⚽, Guerra E. (A),

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 7th in the Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals) and 18th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, León won 3.

León has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Juárez has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

León may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

León carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Confirmed absences for León: Arcila D. (International duty) Echeverria R. (International duty) Valadez L. (Foot Injury).

Confirmed absences for Juárez: Rodriguez J. (International duty) Romero L. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for León: Estrada A. (Broken Leg).

Doubtful / questionable for Juárez: Ayon E. (Injury) Romero B. (Knee Injury) Torres Ramirez I. J. M. (Injury).

In the last 16 head-to-head meetings, León has recorded 10 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:11 (averaging 1.6:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for León against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 16:4 goals (averaging 2:0.5 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Club Leon	11	5	3	3	15:12	3	18
18	Juarez	11	1	1	9	8:26	-18	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club León
Mexican Liga MX
20.09.26	Querétaro - Club León	1:1 ✺
14.09.26	Club León - Atlético San Luis	2:0 ✺
10.09.26	UNAM - Club León	3:1 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
06.09.26	Club León - Club América	1:0 ✺
02.09.26	Toluca - Club León	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWLWL
- FC Juárez
Mexican Liga MX
18.09.26	Juárez - Tigres UANL	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Santos Laguna - Juárez	2:1 ✺
04.09.26	Juárez - Pachuca	0:2 ✺
30.08.26	Toluca - Juárez	4:0 ✺
21.08.26	Juárez - Club América	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
18.04.26	Club León - Juárez	3:1
26.09.25	Juárez - Club León	2:0
25.01.25	Club León - Juárez	1:0
19.10.24	Juárez - Club León	2:3
27.04.24	Juárez - Club León	1:1
12.11.23	Club León - Juárez	2:1
17.02.23	Juárez - Club León	0:0

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