Match Info

Paulista A4 - Round 6

Date: 25 February 2026, Wednesday


	Colorado Caieiras		Comercial SP

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.85	3.1
	2.32	2.88	3
	2.45	3	2.75
	2.44	3.04	2.82
	2.4	2.75	2.9
	2.4	3.23	2.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↑ (2.12)	2.96 ↓ (3.08)	2.92 ↓ (3.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colorado Caieiras
38.3%

Draw
30.6%

Comercial SP
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

29.4%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

25.3%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colorado Caieiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Comercial SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Colorado Caieiras than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comercial SP than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

Colorado Caieiras - Comercial SP Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, ⚽,
39', 0 - 2, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
75', 1 - 2, ⚽,
80', 🟥,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 14 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Paulista B (First stage: )).

Colorado Caieiras is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Comercial SP is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Colorado Caieiras will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colorado Caieiras FC
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
21.02.26	Araçatuba - Colorado Caieiras	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Colorado Caieiras - Jabaquara	0:0 ✺
11.02.26	Inter de Bebedouro - Colorado Caieiras	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Colorado Caieiras - VOCEM	0:0 ✺
30.01.26	Barretos - Colorado Caieiras	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLTT
- Comercial de Ribeirão Preto
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A4
21.02.26	Comercial SP - Barretos	1:2 ✺
14.02.26	Grêmio Desportivo São-Carlense - Comercial SP	1:0 ✺
11.02.26	Comercial SP - Taquaritinga	0:1 ✺
03.02.26	Comercial SP - Penapolense	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	ECUS - Comercial SP	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLT

Colorado Caieiras - Comercial SP: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide