Match Info

Liga 2 - Round 7

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday


	Comerciantes Belén		Escuela Municipal Binacional

	1	X	2
	1.26	5	8.5
	1.7	3.25	4.65
	1.29	4.69	7.79
	1.31	5.3	8.69
	1.29	4.5	11
	1.72	3.4	4.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↓ (1.72)	4.36 ↑ (3.4)	7.55 ↑ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Belén
65.9%

Draw
21.6%

Escuela Municipal Binacional
12.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

26.8%

20.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.5%

26.1%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Belén has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Comerciantes Belén's performance.

Escuela Municipal Binacional has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Escuela Municipal Binacional might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (-11.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Comerciantes Belén that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Escuela Municipal Binacional than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Escuela Municipal Binacional could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Comerciantes Belén - Escuela Municipal Binacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva L. (G) 28. Acosta A. 6. Arevalo F. 15. Guerrero Fonseca R. M. 10. Lemos M. 29. Perlaza V. 5. Pinedo D. 19. Ramua A. 3. Rios R. 33. Valdeblanquez J. (C) 11. Villanueva C.	23. Limousin C. (G) 17. Aguirre C. 5. Borletti E. 7. Carranza T. (C) 20. Condena A. 50. Cristhian G. 22. Marcelin Perez J. G. 99. Munoz D. 18. Ortiz J. 14. Rodriguez R. 6. Vasquez O.
Substitutes
7. Bazan J. 8. Flores L. 25. Gonzales Cainamari F. J. 26. Guevara R. 23. Ramirez B. (G) 27. Reategui P. 24. Rojas Ihuaraqui P. N. 17. Vela P. 9. Zambrano J.	37. Cochachi S. 35. Lopez A. 43. Santa Maria J. 26. Zuniga A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
14', Carranza T. ↓, Santa Maria J. ↑,
22', 1 - 0, Villanueva C. ⚽,
34', 2 - 0, Villanueva C. ⚽,
38', 3 - 0, Villanueva C. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
49', Ortiz J. 🟨,
57', Condena A. 🟨,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion Group: ) and 9 in the zone Liga 2 (Relegation Group: )).

Comerciantes is showing really good form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Binacional has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Comerciantes may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Comerciantes is seen as the favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:3. (average 3:1.5).

Including home match between the teams, Comerciantes won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Comerciantes Belén
Peruvian Liga 2
08.05.26	Unión Minas - Comerciantes Belén	0:0 ✺
03.05.26	Comerciantes Belén - Estudiantil CNI	1:1 ✺
26.04.26	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Comerciantes Belén	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Comerciantes Belén - Santos	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Comerciantes Belén	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 TTTWW
- Escuela Municipal Binacional
Peruvian Liga 2
09.05.26	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Ayacucho	0:2 ✺
26.04.26	Unión Minas - Escuela Municipal Binacional	0:0 ✺
20.04.26	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Estudiantil CNI	2:2 ✺
05.04.26	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Escuela Municipal Binacional	2:1 ✺
28.03.26	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Santos	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
09.07.24	Comerciantes Belén - Escuela Municipal Binacional	6:1
20.05.24	Escuela Municipal Binacional - Comerciantes Belén	2:0

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