Match Info

AFRICA: COSAFA Cup - Play Offs - 3rd place

Date: 7 July 2024, Sunday

Location: Nelson Mandela Bay Stadium (Gqeberha)


	Comoros		Mozambique

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.75	2.75
	2.5	2.8	2.9	Watch
	3.29	2.88	2.41
	2.43	2.88	3.26	Watch
	2.6	2.8	2.7
	2.58	2.88	2.88	Watch
	2.6	2.85	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↓ (2.91)	2.83 ↑ (2.8)	2.84 ↑ (2.46)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comoros
34.8%

Draw
32.6%

Mozambique
32.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31%

32.3%

36.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.2%

33.2%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comoros has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)

Mozambique has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Comoros than the current prediction. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mozambique than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mozambique could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Comoros - Mozambique Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Anzimati-Aboudou A. (G) Quevilly 15. Ali Soufiane O. B. 5. Mohamed K. Le Puy-en-Velay 12. M'Madi A. Epinal 3. Youssouf B. 6. Haslane A. Volcan Club 10. Bacar R. Fomboni 22. Assane N. 7. Youssouf I. African Stars 13. Nasser D. 8. Hadji K. Ararat Yerevan	12. Filipe A. (G) 18. Jamisse C. Brera Tchumene 2. Nelson Simbine F. Al-Hala 4. Fumo D. 5. Pedro O. 7. Esteve Melo D. C. 15. Domingos F. 16. Carrelo J. Brera Tchumene 13. Ze Pedro J. Sintrense 3. Alfandega C. Associacao Black Bulls 10. Lorenzoni G. Gudja
Substitutes
19. Ali Mze M. 4. Anziz O. A. 17. Djambae A. S. 16. Fajidou A. (G) 18. Hamada W. Djabal 20. Idari N. 11. Massulaha H. 21. Mohamed A. 9. Sadad A. S. Fomboni 14. Tamime T. Etoile d'Or 23. Youssouf D. (G) 2. Zamir M. Ngaya Club	19. Candido E. J. 14. Dauce V. 8. Dove E. Kaizer Chiefs 11. Ferreira M. Liga Desportivo Maputo 6. Joshua A. SC Salgueiros 20. Muchanga M. Associacao Black Bulls 1. Muendane A. 17. Nhambire J. 9. Pinho G. 21. Simango U. Brera Tchumene 22. Tembe A. (G) 23. Tembe O.
Coaches
Cusin S.	Francisco Q. C. J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
18', Lorenzoni G. 🟨,
27', Domingos F. 🟨,
32', 1 - 0, Hadji K. ⚽, Youssouf I. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Lorenzoni G. ↓, Ferreira M. ↑,
46', Ze Pedro J. ↓, Dauce V. ↑,
51', 1 - 1, Alfandega C. ⚽, Ferreira M. (A),
55', Haslane A. 🟨,
64', Nasser D. ↓, Idari N. ↑,
64', M'Madi A. ↓, Anziz O. A. ↑,
68', Carrelo J. ↓, Candido E. J. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Youssouf I. ⚽, Haslane A. (A),
73', Assane N. ↓, Hamada W. ↑,
74', Hamada W. 🟨,
78', 2 - 2, Alfandega C. ⚽,
90', Domingos F. ↓, Joshua A. ↑,
90+6', Pedro O. ↓, Simango U. ↑,
Penalties (1 - 3)
1, Ferreira M. (Pen),
1, Youssouf I. (Pen),
2, Joshua A. (Pen),
2, Haslane A. (Pen),
3, Candido E. J. (Pen),
3, Mohamed K. (Pen),
4, Alfandega C. (Pen),
4, Ali Soufiane O. B. (Pen),

Preview

Two teams are playing changeable.

Mozambique could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Comoros won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comoros
COSAFA Cup
05.07.24	Comoros - Angola	1:2 ✺
02.07.24	Comoros - Zambia	1:0 ✺
30.06.24	Kenya - Comoros	0:2 ✺
27.06.24	Comoros - Zimbabwe	0:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
11.06.24	Chad - Comoros	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 LWWLW
- Mozambique
COSAFA Cup
05.07.24	Mozambique - Namibia	0:1 penalties ✺
02.07.24	Mozambique - Botswana	3:1 ✺
29.06.24	Mozambique - Eswatini	0:0 ✺
26.06.24	South Africa - Mozambique	1:1 ✺
FIFA World Cup
10.06.24	Guinea - Mozambique	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

COSAFA Cup
29.05.18	Mozambique - Comoros	3:0

Comoros - Mozambique: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide