Match Info

National League North - Round 3

Date: 18 August 2026, Tuesday

Location: Blackwell Meadows (Darlington)


	Darlington		Chester

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.60	1.95
	3.10	3.30	2.00
	3.05	3.35	2.02
	3.30	3.44	2.12
	3.23	3.57	2.08	Watch
	3.25	3.40	2.09
	3.20	3.32	2.06
	3.10	3.45	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.17 ↓ (3.19)	3.43 ↓ (3.54)	2.05 ↓ (2.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Darlington
28.8%

Draw
26.6%

Chester
44.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

26.4%

44.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

26%

45%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Darlington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Chester has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

The ML Model estimate for Darlington aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chester than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Darlington - Chester Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 0 - 1, Bogle-Campbell M. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Darlington won 1.

Recent performances by Darlington have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chester is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Darlington may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Chester might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Darlington won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 16:20. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Darlington won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.3:0.9).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Chester: 10.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13:9	4	17
22	Darlington	10	2	1	7	12:21	-9	7

Last Results with these Odds

Chester - the odds 2.11 are the expected chance of winning is 44.3%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Darlington FC
English National League North
15.08.26	Bedford Town - Darlington	2:3 ✺
08.08.26	Darlington - Worksop Town	1:2 ✺
Club Friendly
28.07.26	Darlington - Rotherham United	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Darlington - Carlisle United	2:4 ✺
14.07.26	Stockton Town - Darlington	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLLW
- Chester City
English National League North
15.08.26	Chester - King`s Lynn Town	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Chester - Crewe Alexandra	0:0 ✺
24.07.26	Hyde United - Chester	0:1 ✺
21.07.26	Chester - Stoke City	0:1 ✺
18.07.26	Warrington Town - Chester	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
07.03.26	Chester - Darlington	2:1
20.09.25	Darlington - Chester	1:1
12.04.25	Chester - Darlington	2:1
05.11.24	Darlington - Chester	1:0
20.04.24	Chester - Darlington	0:0
11.11.23	Darlington - Chester	3:2
01.04.23	Darlington - Chester	1:2

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