Match Info

CHILE: Primera Division - Round 19

Date: 10 August 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Luis Valenzuela Hermosilla (Copiapó)

Referee: Gonzalez F. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Chile	TNT Sports, TNT Sports Go, TNT Sports Premium


	Deportes Copiapó		Ñublense

	1	X	2
	3	3.4	2.25	Watch
	2.9	3.5	2.25
	2.9	3.6	2.3	Watch
	2.74	3.55	2.57
	2.96	3.43	2.29	Watch
	2.8	3.5	2.2
	2.92	3.58	2.26	Watch
	2.9	3.6	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.39)	3.52 ↑ (3.34)	2.3 ↓ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportes Copiapó
32.5%

Draw
26.7%

Ñublense
40.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39%

28%

33%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

28.1%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportes Copiapó has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Deportes Copiapó's form might have worsened.

Ñublense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ñublense's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Copiapó than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Deportes Copiapó, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ñublense, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70%	30%	0%

Deportes Copiapó - Ñublense Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Copiapó will win (votes: 7 - 87.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Copiapó: 64.6% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Leyton R. (G) 17. Nieto B. 8. Vargas N. 15. Garcia D. 28. Oyanedel Hernandez Y. A. 5. Manzano F. 20. Gonzalez Y. 11. Reynero F. 29. Quinteros M. 7. Leonardo Pais 18. Gaete J.	1. Perez N. (G) 18. Cerezo B. 2. Labrin C. 5. Caroca R. 14. Campusano G. 27. Moya F. 28. Rivera M. 6. Reyes L. (C) 26. Sosa I. 20. Graciani G. 12. Rubio P.
Substitutes
22. Espinoza N. (G) 9. Figueroa T. 21. Medel de la Fuente M. 26. Torres F.	9. Bonacci P. 21. Medina C. 22. Plaza M. 10. Rozas I. 30. Tapia D. (G) 15. Valencia Cisternas S. A. 16. Vasquez R.
Coaches
Basay I.	Salas M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
25', 0 - 1, Moya F. ⚽, Rivera M. (A),
32', Leonardo Pais ↓, Medel de la Fuente M. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Manzano F. ↓, Figueroa T. ↑,
46', Reynero F. ↓, Torres F. ↑,
69', Nieto B. ↓, Andia Leon Y. W. ↑,
73', Torres F. 🟨,
74', Gaete J. ↓, Araya M. ↑,
76', Moya F. ↓, Medina C. ↑,
81', Graciani G. ↓, Bonacci P. ↑,
87', Cerezo B. ↓, Valencia Cisternas S. A. ↑,
87', Sosa I. ↓, Rozas I. ↑,
90+8', 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Copiapó won 1.

Copiapó is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Ñublense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Copiapó won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 12-19.

Including matches at home between the teams Copiapó won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportes Copiapó
Chilean Primera Division
04.08.24	Universidad de Chile - Deportes Copiapó	1:0 ✺
27.07.24	Deportes Copiapó - Coquimbo Unido	3:0 ✺
20.07.24	OHiggins - Deportes Copiapó	2:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
29.06.24	Cobresal - Deportes Copiapó	3:1 ✺
22.06.24	Deportes Copiapó - Cobresal	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWLLT
- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Primera Division
04.08.24	Audax Italiano - Ñublense	0:1 ✺
28.07.24	Ñublense - Universidad Católica	1:2 ✺
20.07.24	Coquimbo Unido - Ñublense	1:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.07.24	Ñublense - Deportes Linares	5:1 ✺
08.07.24	Deportes Linares - Ñublense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
10.03.24	Ñublense - Deportes Copiapó	1:0
26.11.23	Deportes Copiapó - Ñublense	1:1
09.05.23	Ñublense - Deportes Copiapó	1:0
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
09.01.21	Ñublense - Deportes Copiapó	5:0
10.09.20	Deportes Copiapó - Ñublense	1:0
02.09.19	Ñublense - Deportes Copiapó	2:2
11.05.19	Deportes Copiapó - Ñublense	1:0

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