Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 18

Date: 10 August 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Bicentenario de La Florida (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Riquelme M. (Chi)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Audax Italiano		Ñublense

	1	X	2
	2.40	3.00	2.85	Watch
	2.45	3.20	2.85
	2.23	3.20	3.10	Watch
	2.47	3.25	3.09
	2.35	3.34	2.94	Watch
	2.40	3.15	3.00
	2.45	3.13	3.18	Watch
	2.34	3.05	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.39 ↑ (2.28)	3.17 ↓ (3.22)	2.99 ↓ (3.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Audax Italiano
39.2%

Draw
29.5%

Ñublense
31.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

29%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

30.3%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Audax Italiano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Ñublense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Audax Italiano than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Audax Italiano - Ñublense Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Audax Italiano will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Ñublense will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ahumada T. (G) 35. Rebolledo R. 13. Ferrario E. 29. Ortiz M. 2. Zenteno V. 32. Soto B. 7. Guajardo P. 28. Mateos F. (C) 19. Pinares C. 11. Troyansky F. 27. Fuentes M.	1. Perez N. (G) 6. Calderon P. 4. Bosso Torres O. 15. Valencia S. 16. Sanhueza D. 21. Reyes L. (C) 10. Plaza M. 28. Rivera M. 14. Campusano J. 8. Graciani G. 11. Molina Canto L.
Substitutes
9. Coelho D. 8. Collao M. 25. Garrido P. (G) 17. Loyola F. 14. Monreal D. 22. Pizarro D. 3. Salomoni F. 6. Sandoval M. 30. Uribe A.	26. Calderon E. 5. Campos Mosqueira F. 27. Guzman V. 35. Mansilla C. 36. Munoz B. 25. Munoz H. (G) 13. Saavedra D. 3. Salomon C. 22. Valdes A.
Coaches
Graff P.	Ribera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Rivera M. ⚽, Campusano J. (A),
33', 1 - 1, Fuentes M. ⚽, Pinares C. (A),
42', Ferrario E. 🟨,
45+3', Calderon P. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
65', Soto B. ↓, Uribe A. ↑,
65', Fuentes M. ↓, Sandoval M. ↑,
67', Molina Canto L. ↓, Mansilla C. ↑,
67', Calderon P. ↓, Campos Mosqueira F. ↑,
69', Campos Mosqueira F. 🟨,
73', Mateos F. ↓, Salomoni F. ↑,
74', Troyansky F. ↓, Coelho D. ↑,
75', Graciani G. ↓, Calderon E. ↑,
83', Guajardo P. ↓, Pizarro D. ↑,
85', Ortiz M. 🟨,
90+2', 1 - 2, Plaza M. (Penalty Awarded),
90+4', Plaza M. ↓, Valdes A. ↑,
90+4', Rivera M. ↓, Saavedra D. ↑,
90+5', Saavedra D. 🟨,
90+12', 2 - 2, Pinares C. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Audax Italiano won 3.

In recent matches, Audax Italiano has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Ñublense is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Audax Italiano may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Ñublense has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Audax Italiano won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:23. (average 1.1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Audax Italiano won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 3:10. (average 0.4:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28:31	-3	32
12	A. Italiano	23	7	7	9	26:31	-5	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Audax Italiano
Chilean Primera Division
31.07.26	Universidad de Concepción - Audax Italiano	0:1 ✺
26.07.26	Audax Italiano - Universidad de Chile	1:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
11.07.26	Deportes Magallanes - Audax Italiano	0:1 ✺
05.07.26	Deportes Santa Cruz - Audax Italiano	2:1 ✺
30.06.26	Audax Italiano - Palestino	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 WLWLW
- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Cup
04.08.26	Ñublense - Rangers de Talca	1:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
26.07.26	Ñublense - Palestino	2:0 ✺
Chilean Copa de la Liga
12.07.26	OHiggins - Ñublense	2:0 penalties ✺
09.07.26	Ñublense - OHiggins	2:1 ✺
Chilean Cup
05.07.26	Ñublense - Curicó Unido	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
15.02.26	Ñublense - Audax Italiano	1:0
01.12.25	Audax Italiano - Ñublense	1:0
15.06.25	Ñublense - Audax Italiano	2:3
04.08.24	Audax Italiano - Ñublense	0:1
02.03.24	Ñublense - Audax Italiano	1:2
08.10.23	Audax Italiano - Ñublense	1:0
Copa Sudamericana
21.07.23	Audax Italiano - Ñublense	0:1

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