The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Deportivo Merlo 46.3%
Draw 30.3%
Ituzaingó 23.4%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
49.9%
30.5%
19.6%
Our Initial ML Estimation
39.9%
24.4%
24.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Deportivo Merlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)
Ituzaingó has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (-6.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Deportivo Merlo that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ituzaingó than the current prediction. (+1.1%)
Deportivo Merlo - Ituzaingó Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Tursi F. (G) 4. Aguerre F. 9. Aguirre D. E. 10. Benitez F. 2. Figueredo L. 11. Maguicha D. 6. Minnicelli A. 5. Ojeda G. 7. Sandoval I. 8. Vallejo L. 3. Velasco A.
1. Acevedo H. (G) 4. Aguirre M. 8. Bermejo M. 5. Campusano M. 10. Celeste F. 7. Fanti J. 2. Gayoso E. 6. Liporace I. 9. Maza J. 11. Miranda A. (C) 3. Politano A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Fanti J. 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Fanti J. ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
46', Benitez F. ↓, Sandoval I. ↑,
46', Vallejo L. ↓, Paez A. M. ↑,
52', 0 - 2, Miranda A. ⚽,
54', 🟨,
56', Da Rosa J. E. ↓, Maguicha D. ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Aguerre F. ⚽,
65', Celeste F. ↓, Mena L. ↑,
65', Miranda A. ↓, Brotzman S. ↑,
65', Fanti J. ↓, Mantovani E. ↑,
76', 2 - 2, Aguirre D. E. ⚽,
80', Hernandez R. ↓, Diaz A. ↑,
81', Liporace I. ↓, Bravo G. ↑,
87', Bermejo M. ↓, Maciel E. ↑,
90+1', Sandoval I. 🟨,
90+5', 3 - 2, Aguirre D. E. ⚽,
Preview
A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 22 in the zone Relegation ~ Primera C (Apertura: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 2.
Deportivo Merlo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Ituzaingó's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Deportivo Merlo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Deportivo Merlo is considered a favorite.
In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 0.7:0.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Merlo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.4:0.6).
Watch
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Tursi F. (G) 
Miranda A. (C) 
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