Match Info

Primera B - Round 7

Date: 21 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Jose Manuel Moreno Stadium (Buenos Aires)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Deportivo Merlo		San Martín de Burzaco

	1	X	2
	2.1	2.75	3.5
	2.25	2.82	3.2	Watch
	2.28	3	3.2
	2.26	3.01	3.14	Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.2
	2.45	2.92	3.13
	2.1	2.8	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.09)	2.87 ↓ (2.94)	3.27 ↓ (3.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Merlo
40.5%

Draw
31.6%

San Martín de Burzaco
27.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

31.1%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

30.8%

24.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Merlo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

San Martín de Burzaco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Merlo than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Martín de Burzaco than the current prediction. (-3%)

Deportivo Merlo - San Martín de Burzaco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tursi F. (G) 4. Aguerre F. 9. Aguirre D. E. 2. Barrientos L. 10. Benitez F. 7. Da Rosa J. E. 11. Maguicha D. 3. Miguez L. 6. Minnicelli A. 5. Rios N. 8. Vallejo L.	1. Gagliardo M. (G) 3. Barrera N. 8. Diaz R. 10. Gonzalez R. 2. Lazarev R. 4. Modon S. 5. Peralta R. 11. Serpa I. 6. Siliman A. 7. Velazquez R. 9. Zagert E.
Substitutes
17. Cuenca C. 14. Figueredo L. 12. Figueroa T. (G) 19. Hernandez R. 15. Ojeda G. 18. Paez A. M. 16. Quinteros E. 20. Sandoval I. 13. Velasco A.	20. Chavez B. 16. Denis K. 14. Escudero M. 17. Lezcano L. 12. Marchesi N. (G) 13. Orellana D. 19. Selpa E. 15. Tobon J. 18. Torres A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
21', 0 - 1, Serpa I. ⚽,
27', Zagert E. 🟨,
43', 0 - 2, Zagert E. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Rios N. ↓, Sandoval I. ↑,
46', Miguez L. ↓, Figueredo L. ↑,
46', 0 - 3, Serpa I. ⚽,
53', Minnicelli A. 🟨,
59', 0 - 4, Serpa I. ⚽,
62', Benitez F. ↓, Quinteros E. ↑,
62', Aguirre D. E. ↓, Hernandez R. ↑,
63', Zagert E. ↓, Lezcano L. ↑,
63', Diaz R. ↓, Chavez B. ↑,
72', Barrera N. 🟨,
73', Velazquez R. ↓, Escudero M. ↑,
80', Serpa I. ↓, Orellana D. ↑,
80', Modon S. ↓, Selpa E. ↑,
81', 🟨,
81', Maguicha D. ↓, Cuenca C. ↑,
82', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Recently, SM de Burzaco has had a series of home games.

Deportivo Merlo might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Merlo won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Deportivo Merlo won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 0.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	San Martin Burzaco	38	12	14	12	39:41	-2	50
15	Dep. Merlo	38	10	14	14	36:51	-15	44

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Merlo - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 43.88%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

San Martín de Burzaco - the odds 3.66 are the expected chance of winning is 25%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Merlo
Argentinian Primera B
14.03.26	Villa San Carlos - Deportivo Merlo	1:1 ✺
04.03.26	Real Pilar - Deportivo Merlo	1:3 ✺
27.02.26	Deportivo Merlo - UAI Urquiza	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	Villa Dálmine - Deportivo Merlo	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Deportivo Merlo - Excursionistas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 TWTWL
- San Martín de Burzaco
Argentinian Primera B
15.03.26	San Martín de Burzaco - Deportivo Camioneros	0:0 ✺
03.03.26	San Martín de Burzaco - Ituzaingó	3:0 ✺
27.02.26	San Martín de Burzaco - Villa San Carlos	3:3 ✺
22.02.26	Liniers - San Martín de Burzaco	0:0 ✺
14.02.26	San Martín de Burzaco - Real Pilar	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 TWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
16.11.25	San Martín de Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo	1:3
22.06.25	Deportivo Merlo - San Martín de Burzaco	1:0
01.09.24	Deportivo Merlo - San Martín de Burzaco	1:0
14.04.24	San Martín de Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo	1:2
Argentinian Primera C
09.11.19	Deportivo Merlo - San Martín de Burzaco	0:0
05.03.19	San Martín de Burzaco - Deportivo Merlo	0:1
22.09.18	Deportivo Merlo - San Martín de Burzaco	1:0

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