Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 11

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Departamental Libertad (Pasto)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Sport TV
Canada	fubo Sports Network
Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Russia	Viju+ Sport
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz, FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, Fubo Latino 2, Fubo Latino


	Deportivo Pasto		Once Caldas

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.10	3.20	2.15
	3.05	3.2	2.25	Watch
	3.25	3.4	2.34
	3.14	3.21	2.3	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.25
	3.09	3.15	2.28	Watch
	3.05	3.2	2.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.13 ↑ (2.88)	3.21 ↓ (3.3)	2.27 ↓ (2.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Deportivo Pasto
29.8%

Draw
29.1%

Once Caldas
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

28.4%

39.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

28.3%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Deportivo Pasto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Once Caldas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Pasto than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Banguera G. (G) 33. Garavito M. 21. Osede D. 5. Gil N. (C) 3. Rios J. 32. Pisano M. 15. Mancilla H. 25. Leys F. 27. Goyes H. 7. Perlaza J. 18. Micolta Piedahita J.	99. Parra J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 16. Castano J. 30. Londono D. 3. Correa A. 23. Colorado A. 20. Roa A. 7. Barrios M. 42. Quinones J. 28. Zuleta M. 17. Moreno D. (C)
Substitutes
1. Cabezas Quinonez E. A. (G) 10. Chavez D. 29. Cordoba S. 23. Goez Y. 6. Jimenez M. S. 35. Martinez F. 19. Preciado P. 2. Torijano F. 26. Valencia H.	15. Alvarado J. 12. Camargo J. (G) 21. Guzman H. 6. Marmolejo D. 5. Nieto J. 33. Patino J. 19. Rojas T. 29. Torres E. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A.
Coaches
Rosero J.	Herrera H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Zuleta M. 🟥,
25', Quinones J. 🟨,
45', Barrios M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Gil N. ↓, Preciado P. ↑,
46', Mancilla H. ↓, Chavez D. ↑,
49', 1 - 0, Chavez D. ⚽, Perlaza J. (A),
57', Colorado A. 🟨,
58', Garavito M. 🟨,
64', Pisano M. ↓, Goez Y. ↑,
64', Garavito M. ↓, Jimenez M. S. ↑,
66', Quinones J. ↓, Guzman H. ↑,
75', Barrios M. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
75', Moreno D. ↓, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↑,
77', Goez Y. 🟨,
83', Perlaza J. ↓, Cordoba S. ↑,
85', Roa A. ↓, Nieto J. ↑,
90', Chavez D. 🟨,

Preview

A team fighting near the bottom hosts a mid-table side in a match full of urgency (ranked 19th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Deportivo Pasto won 1.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Deportivo Pasto could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Once Caldas holding a narrow advantage.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Deportivo Pasto has recorded 8 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:27 (averaging 0.9:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Deportivo Pasto against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, with 10:7 goals (averaging 1:0.7 per game).

Outrights of Colombian Primera A for now

Once Caldas: 2.62% Dep. Pasto: 0.79%

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Once Caldas	12	3	4	5	15:16	-1	13
18	Dep. Pasto	12	2	3	7	9:18	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Deportivo Pasto - the odds 2.88 are the expected chance of winning is 32.54%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Pasto
Colombian Primera A
14.09.26	América de Cali - Deportivo Pasto	0:1 ✺
Colombian Copa
09.09.26	Deportivo Pasto - Independiente Medellín	1:4 ✺
Colombian Primera A
05.09.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportivo Pasto	2:2 ✺
31.08.26	Deportivo Pasto - Deportivo Pereira	1:2 ✺
27.08.26	Inter Bogotá - Deportivo Pasto	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.5 WLTLT
- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
16.09.26	Once Caldas - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
13.09.26	Once Caldas - Deportivo Cali	1:2 ✺
Colombian Copa
09.09.26	Once Caldas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
05.09.26	Boyacá Chicó - Once Caldas	2:0 ✺
01.09.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
13.03.26	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	4:2
09.11.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	1:0
Colombian Copa
01.10.25	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	4:0
28.08.25	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	1:2
Colombian Primera A
18.05.25	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	2:1
14.10.24	Once Caldas - Deportivo Pasto	2:1
30.03.24	Deportivo Pasto - Once Caldas	0:0

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