Match Info

Primera A - Clausura - Round 7

Date: 16 September 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Palogrande (Manizales)


	Once Caldas		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	2.25	3	3.3	Watch
	2.20	3.10	3.10
	2.22	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.29	3.2	3.46
	2.25	3.15	3.32	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.35
	2.34	3.11	3.43	Watch
	2.24	3.15	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.17)	3.11 ↑ (2.93)	3.3 ↓ (3.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Once Caldas
41.5%

Draw
30.1%

Deportes Tolima
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.1%

31.9%

25.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

31.2%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Once Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Deportes Tolima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Once Caldas than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Once Caldas - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Once Caldas will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Parra J. (G) 22. Cuesta Santos J. D. 16. Castano J. 30. Londono D. 3. Correa A. 42. Quinones J. 23. Colorado A. 7. Barrios M. 20. Roa A. 28. Zuleta M. 17. Moreno D. (C)	1. Neto Volpi (G) 28. Lopez E. 3. Angulo J. 2. Angulo A. (C) 20. Hernandez J. 32. Guzman S. 14. Martinez Yepez H. E. 8. Valencia E. 10. Sanchez L. 18. Florez K. 7. Hurtado J.
Substitutes
15. Alvarado J. 31. Beltran J. 12. Camargo J. (G) 21. Guzman H. 6. Marmolejo D. 5. Nieto J. 33. Patino J. 29. Torres E. 14. Zapata Ramirez J. A.	30. Barbosa Gomez S. P. 25. Cabezas S. 33. Mosquera J. 13. Ortega M. (G) 71. Osorio Y. 4. Pedrozo D. 16. Reyes V. 19. Santiago J. 11. Valencia J.
Coaches
Herrera H.	Oliveros S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
3', Sanchez L. 🟨,
5', Quinones J. 🟨,
8', 1 - 0, Moreno D. ⚽, Cuesta Santos J. D. (A),
19', Castano J. 🟨,
19', Angulo A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Martinez Yepez H. E. 🟨,
66', Zuleta M. ↓, Guzman H. ↑,
66', Quinones J. ↓, Alvarado J. ↑,
72', Florez K. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
73', Sanchez L. ↓, Osorio Y. ↑,
73', Lopez E. ↓, Mosquera J. ↑,
79', Moreno D. ↓, Zapata Ramirez J. A. ↑,
79', Roa A. ↓, Nieto J. ↑,
84', Valencia E. ↓, Barbosa Gomez S. P. ↑,
84', Hernandez J. ↓, Santiago J. ↑,
90', Barrios M. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
90+5', Hurtado J. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 0.

In recent matches, Once Caldas has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Deportes Tolima has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Deportes Tolima may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Once Caldas has had a series of away games.

Recently, Deportes Tolima has had a series of home games.

Once Caldas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Once Caldas won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 15:26. (average 0.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Once Caldas won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 0.8:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20
9	Once Caldas	13	4	4	5	16:16	0	16

Last Results with these Odds

Once Caldas - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 43.06%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Deportes Tolima - the odds 3.73 are the expected chance of winning is 25.05%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Once Caldas
Colombian Primera A
13.09.26	Once Caldas - Deportivo Cali	1:2 ✺
Colombian Copa
09.09.26	Once Caldas - Alianza Valledupar	1:0 ✺
Colombian Primera A
05.09.26	Boyacá Chicó - Once Caldas	2:0 ✺
01.09.26	Fortaleza CEIF - Once Caldas	1:2 ✺
23.08.26	Junior Barranquilla - Once Caldas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLWT
- Deportes Tolima
Colombian Primera A
11.09.26	Independiente Santa Fe - Deportes Tolima	1:0 ✺
07.09.26	Llaneros SA - Deportes Tolima	1:2 ✺
31.08.26	Deportes Tolima - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
25.08.26	Independiente del Valle - Deportes Tolima	3:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
22.08.26	Deportes Tolima - Atlético Bucaramanga	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 LWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
15.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas	2:1
24.08.25	Once Caldas - Deportes Tolima	0:1
10.03.25	Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas	2:0
08.12.24	Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas	1:0
21.11.24	Once Caldas - Deportes Tolima	0:0
25.10.24	Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas	1:1
26.05.24	Once Caldas - Deportes Tolima	0:1

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