Match Info

Premier League 2

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday

Location: The Proctor Cars Stadium (Matlock)

Referee: Rhodes G. (Eng)


	Derby County U21		Nottingham Forest U21

	1	X	2
	3.35	3.5	1.9
	3.77	3.5	1.97
	3.69	3.59	1.92	Watch
	3.2	3.4	1.91
	3.31	3.88	1.97	Watch
	3.5	3.75	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.47 ↑ (2.89)	3.6 ↑ (3.52)	1.92 ↓ (2.24)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derby County U21
26.5%

Draw
25.5%

Nottingham Forest U21
47.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.1%

26.4%

41.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.8%

25.4%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derby County U21 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Derby County U21's form might have worsened.

Nottingham Forest U21 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Nottingham Forest U21's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derby County U21 than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nottingham Forest U21 than the current prediction. (-4.7%)

Derby County U21 - Nottingham Forest U21 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thompson J. (G) 2. Gordon I. 5. Osayande A. (C) 4. Banks L. 3. Gough B. 8. Wahling J. 6. Hawkins H. 7. Wilson C. 10. Allen C. 11. Smith C. 9. Oguntolu J.	1. Campbell L. (G) 2. da Silva Moreira E. 5. Hanks J. (C) 4. Orr M. 3. Sanneh B. 8. McClure B. 6. Hammond B. 7. Sinclair J. 10. Whitehall A. 11. Smith F. 9. Thompson K.
Substitutes
15. Green I. 13. Kane S. (G) 14. Tola M.	14. Blake Z. 18. Broomes E. 12. Grainger O. (G) 16. Nwosu C. 15. Powell J.
Coaches
Maye D.	Joyce W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Whitehall A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
50', McClure B. 🟨,
58', Smith C. ↓, Green I. ↑,
81', Orr M. 🟨,
82', Wilson C. ↓, Tola M. ↑,
84', da Silva Moreira E. ↓, Nwosu C. ↑,
89', Gough B. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 29 and 20).

Derby U21 is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Nottingham U21 is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Nottingham U21 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Nottingham U21 is seen as the favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Derby U21 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 3:12. (average 0.6:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Derby U21 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Nottingham U21	4	3	0	1	7:7	0	9
20	Derby U21	4	1	1	2	9:12	-3	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Derby County U21
English Premier League 2
26.01.26	Crystal Palace U21 - Derby County U21	6:0 ✺
16.01.26	Derby County U21 - Aston Villa U21	0:0 ✺
English Premier League Cup
06.01.26	Derby County U21 - Sheffield United U21	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Stoke City U21 - Derby County U21	1:1 ✺
16.12.25	Bristol City U21 - Derby County U21	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LTLTL
- Nottingham Forest U21
English Premier League 2
26.01.26	Nottingham Forest U21 - Reading U21	0:1 ✺
English Premier League Cup
23.01.26	Swansea City U21 - Nottingham Forest U21	1:1 ✺
English Premier League International Cup
19.01.26	Nottingham Forest U21 - Paris SG U21	2:0 ✺
English Premier League 2
12.01.26	Blackburn Rovers U21 - Nottingham Forest U21	0:3 ✺
English Premier League Cup
22.12.25	Wolverhampton Wanderers U21 - Nottingham Forest U21	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 LTWWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League 2
10.02.25	Nottingham Forest U21 - Derby County U21	1:1
29.01.24	Derby County U21 - Nottingham Forest U21	0:1
English Premier League Cup
24.02.23	Derby County U21 - Nottingham Forest U21	0:2
English Premier League 2
27.01.23	Nottingham Forest U21 - Derby County U21	7:2
10.10.22	Derby County U21 - Nottingham Forest U21	0:1

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