Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 11

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday


	Derio		Añorga

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	5.15
	1.62	3.88	4.76
	1.21	5.83	11.99	Watch
	1.61	3.52	5.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↑ (1.45)	4.18 ↑ (4)	6.75 ↑ (6.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Derio
63.2%

Draw
22.7%

Añorga
14.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.7%

22.7%

14.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.2%

21.8%

14%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Derio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Añorga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derio than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Añorga than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Derio - Añorga Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Barron J. (Pen),
2nd Half (3 - 0)
63', 2 - 0, ⚽,
65', 3 - 0, ⚽,
76', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 7 and 18 in the zone Relegation).

Derio is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Añorga has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Añorga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Derio is the undeniable favorite.

We predict that Derio will win today's game, with odds of 1.45.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Derio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Including home match between the teams, Derio won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Derio
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
08.11.25	Durango - Derio	1:0 ✺
31.10.25	Derio - Aretxabaleta	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Zamudio - Derio	2:3 ✺
18.10.25	Derio - Santurtzi	3:0 ✺
12.10.25	Real Sociedad C - Derio	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.2 LWWWW
- Añorga KKE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
08.11.25	Añorga - Touring KE	2:2 ✺
02.11.25	Alavés C - Añorga	2:0 ✺
25.10.25	Añorga - Aurrerá de Vitoria	0:0 ✺
18.10.25	Leioa - Añorga	7:1 ✺
11.10.25	Añorga - Eibar C	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.01.24	Derio - Añorga	2:0

Derio - Añorga: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide