Match Info

Belarusian Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Spartak (Mogilev)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5


	Dnyapro Mogilev		Vitebsk

	1	X	2
	3.4	3.2	1.93
	3.82	3.31	1.94
	4.05	3.54	1.85	Watch
	3.81	3.38	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (2.94)	3.36 ↑ (3.2)	1.89 ↓ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Dnyapro Mogilev
24.3%

Draw
27.3%

Vitebsk
48.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.2%

28.6%

40.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.1%

27%

37.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dnyapro Mogilev has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dnyapro Mogilev's form might have worsened.

Vitebsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Vitebsk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dnyapro Mogilev than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dnyapro Mogilev, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitebsk than the current prediction. (-10.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vitebsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Dnyapro Mogilev - Vitebsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Shapko D. (G) 22. Boltrushevich I. 20. Bordukov P. 5. Elagin K. 11. Fedosov V. 10. Gurbanov M. 33. Kapov K. (C) 8. Usanov A. 21. Vershinin G. 88. Yurkevich F. 77. Zheleznikov G.	12. Kharitonov D. (G) 30. Bashilov M. 55. Girs D. 4. Gorbachik V. 20. Krasnov E. 33. Makushinsky Y. 23. Naumov N. (C) 27. Novykh E. 9. Teverov R. 26. Tikhonovskiy S. 3. Zhumaev V.
Substitutes
9. Arkhipov A. 13. Lastochkin A. 91. Miroevskiy A. 34. Petrenko A. 89. Sedzich P. 7. Stepanenko V. 66. Tarasenko V. 35. Veydyger K. (G) 71. Zhabrakov D.	22. Egorov S. 1. Gushchenko D. (G) 80. Ksenofontov A. 53. Kuntsevich M. 7. Lisovskiy R. 37. Radikovskiy D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, Teverov R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Usanov A. ↓, Petrenko A. ↑,
59', Fedosov V. ↓, Arkhipov A. ↑,
59', Boltrushevich I. ↓, Zhabrakov D. ↑,
59', Zheleznikov G. ↓, Miroevskiy A. ↑,
72', 🟨,
77', 🟨,
84', 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dnyapro won 2.

Dnyapro is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Vitebsk's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vitebsk could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Dnyapro won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 18:22. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Dnyapro won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dnyapro Mogilev
Belarusian Pershaya Liga
06.07.25	BumProm Gomel - Dnyapro Mogilev	1:1 ✺
30.06.25	Dnyapro Mogilev - Dinamo Minsk 2	1:1 ✺
21.06.25	Belshina - Dnyapro Mogilev	0:1 ✺
13.06.25	Dnyapro Mogilev - Slonim	4:0 ✺
01.06.25	Dnyapro Mogilev - Lida	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 TTWWW
- FC Vitebsk
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
05.07.25	Slavia Mozyr - Vitebsk	4:0 ✺
28.06.25	Vitebsk - Neman Grodno	0:0 ✺
22.06.25	Torpedo-BelAZ - Vitebsk	3:2 ✺
15.06.25	Vitebsk - Smorgon	2:1 ✺
31.05.25	ML Vitebsk - Vitebsk	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
08.11.24	Vitebsk - Dnyapro Mogilev	2:1
23.06.24	Dnyapro Mogilev - Vitebsk	1:2
Belarusian Pershaya Liga
27.08.23	Dnyapro Mogilev - Vitebsk	0:0
22.04.23	Vitebsk - Dnyapro Mogilev	0:1
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
10.09.22	Dnyapro Mogilev - Vitebsk	2:1
02.05.22	Vitebsk - Dnyapro Mogilev	2:1
03.11.19	Dnyapro Mogilev - Vitebsk	2:0

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