Match Info

Vysshaya Liga - Round 12

Date: 15 June 2025, Sunday

Location: Centralnyj Stadion (Vitebsk)

Referee: Yasenovich E. (Blr)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belarus	Belarus 5


	Vitebsk		Smorgon

	1	X	2
	1.63	3.5	4.5
	1.47	4.13	6.9
	1.65	3.4	5
	1.47	4.18	7.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (3.09)	3.8 ↑ (3.2)	5.89 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Vitebsk
59.8%

Draw
24.4%

Smorgon
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

29.8%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

29%

38.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Vitebsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+29%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Vitebsk's performance.

Smorgon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-23.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Smorgon might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitebsk than the current prediction. (-28.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Vitebsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Smorgon than the current prediction. (+22.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Smorgon could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Vitebsk - Smorgon Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Vitebsk will win (votes: 9 - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vitebsk: 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vitebsk (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Kharitonov D. (G) 27. Novykh E. 23. Naumov N. (C) 22. Egorov S. 3. Zhumaev V. 33. Makushinsky Y. 26. Tikhonovskiy S. 30. Bashilov M. 80. Ksenofontov A. 10. Leonovich K. 37. Radikovskiy D.	19. Azarko M. (G) 77. Bogdanovich I. 20. Tonkevich V. 3. Intsoen C. 5. Firsov A. 7. Levkovets A. (C) 6. Doumbia S. 2. Bamba M. 8. Maslovskiy V. 9. Chebotar V. 4. Diallo M.
Substitutes
14. Chervyakov Z. 39. Girs D. 1. Gushchenko D. (G) 11. Kouadio C. 20. Krasnov E. 15. Kuntsevich M. 7. Lisovskiy R. 60. Novichkov I. (G) 77. Osipov M. 88. Pesnyak D.	26. Bini K. 1. Koltygin A. (G) 10. Sodikov S. 78. Yablonskiy M.
Coaches
Slesarcuks I.	Dorokhovich S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Leonovich K. 🟨,
39', Leonovich K. ↓, Krasnov E. ↑,
39', Makushinsky Y. ↓, Girs D. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', Firsov A. 🟨,
52', 1 - 0, Ksenofontov A. ⚽, Tikhonovskiy S. (A),
64', Diallo M. ↓, Sodikov S. ↑,
67', Bashilov M. 🟨,
67', Maslovskiy V. 🟨,
72', Novykh E. ↓, Kuntsevich M. ↑,
72', Chebotar V. ↓, Yablonskiy M. ↑,
75', 2 - 0, Ksenofontov A. ⚽,
77', Ksenofontov A. ↓, Lisovskiy R. ↑,
80', 2 - 1, Firsov A. ⚽, Yablonskiy M. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 11 and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Pershaya Liga).

In recent matches, Vitebsk has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Smorgon is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Vitebsk may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Vitebsk is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Vitebsk won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Vitebsk won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Vitebsk
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
31.05.25	ML Vitebsk - Vitebsk	2:0 ✺
23.05.25	Vitebsk - Dinamo Brest	1:3 ✺
18.05.25	Arsenal Dzyarzhynsk - Vitebsk	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Vitebsk - Slutsk	4:1 ✺
Belarusian Cup
07.05.25	Vitebsk - Neman Grodno	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LLTWW
- FC Smorgon
Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
01.06.25	Smorgon - Minsk	0:2 ✺
26.05.25	BATE Borisov - Smorgon	2:2 ✺
16.05.25	Smorgon - Slavia Mozyr	0:2 ✺
11.05.25	Neman Grodno - Smorgon	0:1 ✺
03.05.25	Smorgon - Torpedo-BelAZ	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 35.7 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Belarusian Vysshaya Liga
28.09.24	Smorgon - Vitebsk	0:3
10.05.24	Vitebsk - Smorgon	0:1
16.10.21	Smorgon - Vitebsk	2:0
28.05.21	Vitebsk - Smorgon	5:0

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