Match Info

Copa Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Alfredo de Castilho (Bauru)


	EC Noroeste		EC Primavera

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	2.95	3.10
	2.28	2.95	2.95	Watch
	2.33	2.97	3.19
	2.33	2.98	3.11
	2.30	2.65	3.15
	2.29	3.33	3.02	Watch
	2.19	3.00	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↑ (1.93)	2.98 ↓ (3.19)	3.08 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Noroeste
39.9%

Draw
30.6%

EC Primavera
29.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

28%

25.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.1%

29%

24.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Noroeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that EC Noroeste's form might have worsened.

EC Primavera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC Noroeste than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for EC Noroeste, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC Primavera than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

EC Noroeste - EC Primavera Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Diogo Silva (G) 77. Bruno Lopes 11. Elicley 23. Igor 10. Leo Ceara 18. Lucas Douglas 13. Luiz Henrique 44. Maycon 33. Ronaldo Alves (C) 6. Vinicius Guedes 95. Yuri Ferraz	1. Ariel (G) 7. Alisson Farias 3. Gabriel Tobias 4. Guilherme Lacerda 2. Joao Gabriel 11. Kauan Cunha 5. Kauan Martins 10. Marco Antonio 8. Paulinho (C) 6. Tiaguinho 9. Ze Eduardo
Substitutes
20. Caua A. 8. Denner 99. Henrique LIma (G) 5. Lucas Costa 17. Matheus Goias 27. Pacheco 7. Pedro Felipe 9. Rafael Silva 22. Renan Araujo 72. Rodolfo 15. Taua	13. Andre Klaus 15. Bruno Lima 17. Daltro P. 18. Henan 12. Levy (G) 21. Lopes de Paulo H. 23. Neto 14. Pablo 16. Pires J. 20. Rafael Longuine 19. Wellington Oliveira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', 🟨,
45+5', 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
56', 🟨,
58', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
Penalties (2 - 1)
1, (Penalty Awarded),
1, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
2, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
3, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
4, (Penalty Awarded),
5, (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

First leg result: 2-2.

In recent outings, Noroeste has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Primavera is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Noroeste could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Noroeste is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Noroeste has recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 10:6 (averaging 2.5:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Noroeste against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 3:0 goals.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Noroeste
Brazilian Copa Paulista
12.09.26	EC Primavera - EC Noroeste	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	EC Noroeste - Comercial SP	4:3 ✺
19.08.26	União São João - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Piracicaba - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	EC Noroeste - União São João	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TWTTT
- EC Primavera
Brazilian Copa Paulista
12.09.26	EC Primavera - EC Noroeste	2:2 ✺
05.09.26	EC Primavera - São Caetano	7:0 ✺
29.08.26	São Caetano - EC Primavera	0:5 ✺
22.08.26	EC Primavera - Paulista	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Osasco Sporting - EC Primavera	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Paulista
12.09.26	EC Primavera - EC Noroeste	2:2
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	EC Primavera - EC Noroeste	3:3
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
03.02.24	EC Primavera - EC Noroeste	1:2
29.01.23	EC Noroeste - EC Primavera	3:0

EC Noroeste - EC Primavera: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide