Match Info

Copa Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Ítalo Mário Limongi (Indaiatuba)


	EC Primavera		EC Noroeste

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	3.00	2.95
	2.28	2.85	3
	2.4	2.81	2.95
	2.26	3.02	3.19
	2.35	2.75	2.9
	2.31	3.25	3.04	Watch
	2.27	2.9	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↓ (2.43)	2.94 ↓ (3.1)	3 ↑ (2.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

EC Primavera
39.1%

Draw
30.8%

EC Noroeste
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

28.9%

34.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.2%

28.7%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

EC Primavera has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

EC Noroeste has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for EC Primavera than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for EC Noroeste than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

EC Primavera - EC Noroeste Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ariel (G) 3. Gabriel Tobias 4. Guilherme Lacerda 2. Joao Gabriel 11. Kauan Cunha 10. Marco Antonio 8. Paulinho (C) 5. Pires J. 6. Tiaguinho 7. Wellington Oliveira 9. Ze Eduardo	1. Diogo Silva (G) 77. Bruno Lopes 11. Elicley 23. Igor 10. Leo Ceara 18. Lucas Douglas 13. Luiz Henrique 44. Maycon 33. Ronaldo Alves (C) 6. Vinicius Guedes 95. Yuri Ferraz
Substitutes
19. Alisson Farias 13. Andre 23. Bahia 17. Daltro P. 18. Henan 20. Henrique G. 15. Kauan Martins 12. Levy (G) 16. Lopes de Paulo H. 21. Neto 14. Pablo 25. Vitinho	20. Caua A. 8. Denner 99. Henrique LIma (G) 17. Joao Prado 5. Lucas Costa 7. Matheus Goias 27. Pacheco 9. Rafael Silva 22. Renan Araujo 72. Rodolfo 15. Taua

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
3', 0 - 1, Lucas Douglas ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Elicley ⚽,
36', 🟨,
40', 🟨,
41', 🟨,
45+5', 1 - 2, Ze Eduardo ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 2 - 2, Ze Eduardo ⚽,
52', 🟨,
90', 🟨,

Preview

First leg.

Primavera is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Noroeste has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Noroeste may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Primavera won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1.3:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Primavera won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:5. (average 2:2.5).

Last Results with these Odds

EC Noroeste - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 34.18%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- EC Primavera
Brazilian Copa Paulista
05.09.26	EC Primavera - São Caetano	7:0 ✺
29.08.26	São Caetano - EC Primavera	0:5 ✺
22.08.26	EC Primavera - Paulista	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	Osasco Sporting - EC Primavera	1:2 ✺
02.08.26	CA Juventus - EC Primavera	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WWLWW
- EC Noroeste
Brazilian Copa Paulista
22.08.26	EC Noroeste - Comercial SP	4:3 ✺
19.08.26	União São João - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
01.08.26	Piracicaba - EC Noroeste	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	EC Noroeste - União São João	2:2 ✺
18.07.26	Comercial SP - EC Noroeste	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Paulista
15.02.26	EC Primavera - EC Noroeste	3:3
Brazilian Campeonato Paulista A2
03.02.24	EC Primavera - EC Noroeste	1:2
29.01.23	EC Noroeste - EC Primavera	3:0

EC Primavera - EC Noroeste: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide