Match Info

Algeria Cup - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 January 2026, Monday


	El Harrach		USM Alger

	1	X	2
	3.25	2.82	2.22
	3.35	2.81	2.31	Watch
	3.2	2.8	2.25
	3.3	2.89	2.32
	3.25	2.75	2.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.27 ↓ (3.89)	2.81 ↑ (2.15)	2.29 ↓ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

El Harrach
27.8%

Draw
32.3%

USM Alger
39.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.6%

42.7%

33.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

42.5%

33.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

El Harrach has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

USM Alger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting USM Alger's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for El Harrach than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for USM Alger than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for USM Alger, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	33.3%	58.3%

El Harrach - USM Alger Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. El Harrach will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). USM Alger will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for USM Alger: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. USM Alger (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
6', 0 - 1, ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
71', 1 - 2, ⚽,
89', 2 - 2, ⚽,
Extra Time (0 - 1)
101', 2 - 3, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, El Harrach won 1.

El Harrach has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

USM Alger is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

USM Alger may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, USM Alger has had a series of home games.

USM Alger could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, El Harrach won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:10. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, El Harrach won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- El Harrach
Algerian Ligue 2
03.01.26	WA Mostaganem - El Harrach	1:3 ✺
27.12.25	El Harrach - GC Mascara	4:1 ✺
19.12.25	Koléa - El Harrach	1:1 ✺
Algerian Cup
12.12.25	El Harrach - Kabylie	1:0 ✺
05.12.25	MO Béjaïa - El Harrach	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.2 WWTWW
- USM Alger
Algerian Ligue 1
08.01.26	USM Alger - Oran	1:1 ✺
27.12.25	Olympique Akbou - USM Alger	1:1 ✺
22.12.25	USM Alger - Rouissat	2:0 ✺
18.12.25	USM Alger - Ben Aknoun	2:2 ✺
Algerian Cup
14.12.25	USM Alger - MO Constantine	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 TTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Algerian Cup
15.04.25	USM Alger - El Harrach	1:0 ET
Algerian Ligue 1
16.02.18	El Harrach - USM Alger	0:0
24.10.17	USM Alger - El Harrach	2:0
07.05.17	El Harrach - USM Alger	1:1
05.11.16	USM Alger - El Harrach	0:2
13.05.16	El Harrach - USM Alger	3:0
28.11.15	USM Alger - El Harrach	2:1

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