Match Info

World Cup - Qualification

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday

Location: A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)

Referee: Gozubuyuk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, New World Sport 2, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Albania	SuperSport 3
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	DAZN
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 3
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 2, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, TLN, VIVA
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 4
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play
Estonia	ETV 2, Soccernet TV
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	L'Equipe, L'Equipe Live Foot
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hungary	Match 4
Iceland	SÝN Sport Viaplay, Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 3
Israel	5 SPORT Israel, Sport 4
Italy	RAI 1, RaiPlay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Sky Sport
Mongolia	Premier Sports 3
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4
New-zealand	Sky Sport Select
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport 1, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Poland	Polsat Sport Premium 2
Portugal	Sport TV3
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	SportKlub 4
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV, SPOTV Now, SPOTV Prime
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Tubi TV
Venezuela	Disney+


	Estonia		Italy

	1	X	2
	29	15	1.05
	38	12.5	1.06
	36	14.25	1.07
	26.43	9.53	1.10	Watch
	35	18.3	1.06	Watch
	24	9.6	1.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	31.41 ↑ (21)	13.2 ↑ (8.2)	1.08 ↓ (1.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estonia
3.1%

Draw
7.3%

Italy
89.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

4.4%

11.4%

84.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estonia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Italy's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	11.5%	88.5%

Estonia - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: 26 users predict this event. Italy will win (votes: 23 - 88.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Italy: 76.2% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1, 1st Half - Italy (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -2.5 - Italy (1.72) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 0.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2 - Italy (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Italy will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Italy (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hein K. (C) Werder Bremen 6. Peetson R. Levadia 13. Paskotsi M. Gent 2. Kuusk M. GKS Katowice 3. Saliste J. Paide Linnameeskond 5. Shein R. R. Fredrikstad 10. Palumets K. Podbrezova 4. Kait M. Thun 8. Soomets M. Start 7. Saarma R. FK Pardubice 21. Tamm A. O. Ljubljana	1. Donnarumma G. (C) Manchester City 22. Di Lorenzo G. Napoli 21. Bastoni A. Inter 13. Calafiori R. Arsenal 7. Orsolini R. Bologna 18. Barella N. Inter 8. Tonali S. Newcastle Utd 3. Dimarco F. Inter 10. Raspadori G. Atl. Madrid 9. Retegui M. Al Qadisiya 11. Kean M. Fiorentina
Substitutes
12. Igonen M. (G) Degerfors 14. Kristal P. Koln 18. Mets K. St. Pauli 17. Miller M. Paide Linnameeskond 11. Mustmaa K. PAOK 22. Perk H. (G) Kalju 15. Sappinen R. Flora 19. Schjonning-Larsen M. Levadia 23. Sinyavskiy V. Bohemians 1905 16. Tamm J. Sepsi 20. Vetkal M. Dordrecht 9. Yakovlev I. Panionios	19. Cambiaghi N. Bologna 20. Cambiaso A. Juventus 12. Carnesecchi M. (G) Atalanta 16. Cristante B. AS Roma 15. Esposito F. Inter 17. Frattesi D. Inter 2. Gabbia M. AC Milan 5. Locatelli M. Juventus 23. Mancini G. AS Roma 4. Spinazzola L. Napoli 6. Udogie D. Tottenham 14. Vicario G. (G) Tottenham
Coaches
Henn J.	Gattuso G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
4', 0 - 1, Kean M. ⚽, Dimarco F. (A),
12', Barella N. 🟨,
15', Kean M. ↓, Esposito F. ↑,
29', Kuusk M. 🟨,
30', Retegui M. (Pen),
38', 0 - 2, Retegui M. ⚽, Orsolini R. (A),
41', Palumets K. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Palumets K. ↓, Schjonning-Larsen M. ↑,
46', Saliste J. ↓, Sinyavskiy V. ↑,
59', Peetson R. 🟨,
62', Orsolini R. ↓, Cambiaso A. ↑,
62', Raspadori G. ↓, Spinazzola L. ↑,
62', Tamm A. ↓, Sappinen R. ↑,
62', Kuusk M. ↓, Mets K. ↑,
72', Bastoni A. 🟨,
74', 0 - 3, Esposito F. ⚽, Spinazzola L. (A),
76', 1 - 3, Sappinen R. ⚽,
77', Barella N. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
78', Retegui M. ↓, Cristante B. ↑,
83', Shein R. R. ↓, Mustmaa K. ↑,
84', Cambiaso A. 🟨,
87', Sinyavskiy V. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, Italy is the clear favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Estonia won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:9. (average 0:4.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Estonia
Friendly
09.09.25	Estonia - Andorra	0:0 ✺
FIFA World Cup
05.09.25	Italy - Estonia	5:0 ✺
09.06.25	Estonia - Norway	0:1 ✺
06.06.25	Estonia - Israel	1:3 ✺
25.03.25	Moldova - Estonia	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TLLLW
- Italy
FIFA World Cup
08.09.25	Israel - Italy	4:5 ✺
05.09.25	Italy - Estonia	5:0 ✺
09.06.25	Italy - Moldova	2:0 ✺
06.06.25	Norway - Italy	3:0 ✺
UEFA Nations League
23.03.25	Germany - Italy	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWLT

Latest Head to Head

FIFA World Cup
05.09.25	Italy - Estonia	5:0
Friendly
11.11.20	Italy - Estonia	4:0

Estonia - Italy: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide