Match Info

EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League A - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund)

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	SuperSport 2
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Optus Sport
Austria	DAZN, RTL
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	RTL, RTL+
Greece	Nova Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Israel	Sport 2
Italy	RAI 1, RaiPlay
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	ART Motion Sport 1
Mexico	Sky Sport
Montenegro	Arena Premium 1
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	Sky Sport 3
Nigeria	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1
North-central-america	Csport Caribbean, ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North-macedonia	Arena Premium 1
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
Pakistan	Tapmad
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Puerto-rico	Fox Sports 2
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 1, Nova Sport
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Prime+
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, RSI La 2, RTL, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	ELTA Sports 1
Turkey	Exxen
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Sport 24 International
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, Foxsports.com, Sport 24 At Sea
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Disney+, VIX App


	Germany		Italy

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.8	4
	1.73	3.7	4.2
	1.9	3.75	4.2
	1.91	3.8	4.03	Watch
	1.88	3.93	4.37	Watch
	1.9	3.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.69)	3.79 ↑ (3.33)	4.17 ↓ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Nations League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FS2

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Current Win Probability

Germany
51.6%

Draw
25.3%

Italy
23%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

26.5%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Germany has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.3%	11.9%	11.9%

Germany - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Germany will win (votes: 45 - 76.3%). Italy will win (votes: 7 - 11.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 11.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Germany: 65.4% – 87.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baumann O. (G) Hoffenheim 4. Tah J. Bayer Leverkusen 2. Rudiger A. Real Madrid 15. Schlotterbeck N. Dortmund 6. Kimmich J. (C) Bayern Munich 16. Stiller A. VfB Stuttgart 8. Goretzka L. Bayern Munich 18. Mittelstadt M. VfB Stuttgart 19. Sane L. Bayern Munich 10. Musiala J. Bayern Munich 9. Kleindienst T. B. Monchengladbach	1. Donnarumma G. (C) PSG 5. Gatti F. Juventus 4. Buongiorno A. Napoli 21. Bastoni A. Inter 22. Di Lorenzo G. Napoli 18. Barella N. Inter 6. Ricci S. Torino 8. Tonali S. Newcastle Utd 19. Udogie D. Tottenham 9. Kean M. Fiorentina 11. Maldini D. Atalanta
Substitutes
20. Adeyemi K. Dortmund 11. Amiri N. Mainz 23. Andrich R. Bayer Leverkusen 17. Bisseck Y. Inter 7. Burkardt J. Mainz 5. Gross P. Dortmund 3. Koch R. Eintracht Frankfurt 14. Leweling J. VfB Stuttgart 12. Nubel A. (G) VfB Stuttgart 21. Ortega S. (G) Manchester City 22. Raum D. RB Leipzig 13. Undav D. VfB Stuttgart	2. Bellanova R. Atalanta 23. Casadei C. Torino 3. Comuzzo P. Fiorentina 16. Frattesi D. Inter 17. Lucca L. Udinese 12. Meret A. (G) Napoli 7. Politano M. Napoli 10. Raspadori G. Napoli 14. Rovella N. Lazio 15. Ruggeri M. Atalanta 13. Vicario G. (G) Tottenham 20. Zaccagni M. Lazio
Coaches
Nagelsmann J.	Spalletti L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
21', Gatti F. 🟨,
22', Stiller A. 🟨,
29', Buongiorno A. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Kimmich J. (Pen),
36', 2 - 0, Musiala J. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
45', 3 - 0, Kleindienst T. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Gatti F. ↓, Politano M. ↑,
46', Maldini D. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
49', 3 - 1, Kean M. ⚽,
63', Goretzka L. ↓, Amiri N. ↑,
63', Sane L. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
63', Stiller A. ↓, Gross P. ↑,
68', Adeyemi K. 🟨,
68', Tonali S. ↓, Raspadori G. ↑,
69', 3 - 2, Kean M. ⚽, Raspadori G. (A),
77', Musiala J. ↓, Andrich R. ↑,
77', Rudiger A. ↓, Bisseck Y. ↑,
79', Bastoni A. 🟨,
79', Kleindienst T. 🟨,
85', Kean M. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
85', Ricci S. ↓, Zaccagni M. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 3, Raspadori G. (Pen),
90+9', Barella N. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Germany won 3.

In this match Germany is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Germany won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16:9 (average 2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Germany
UEFA Nations League
20.03.25	Italy - Germany	1:2 ✺
19.11.24	Hungary - Germany	1:1 ✺
16.11.24	Germany - Bosnia and Herzegovina	7:0 ✺
14.10.24	Germany - Netherlands	1:0 ✺
11.10.24	Bosnia and Herzegovina - Germany	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTWWW
- Italy
UEFA Nations League
20.03.25	Italy - Germany	1:2 ✺
17.11.24	Italy - France	1:3 ✺
14.11.24	Belgium - Italy	0:1 ✺
14.10.24	Italy - Israel	4:1 ✺
10.10.24	Italy - Belgium	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Nations League
20.03.25	Italy - Germany	1:2
14.06.22	Germany - Italy	5:2
04.06.22	Italy - Germany	1:1
Friendly
15.11.16	Italy - Germany	0:0
UEFA Euro
02.07.16	Germany - Italy	2:1 penalties
Friendly
29.03.16	Germany - Italy	4:1
15.11.13	Italy - Germany	1:1

Germany - Italy: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide