Match Info

EUROPE: UEFA Nations League - League A - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 23 March 2025, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport MaXimo 1
Albania	20:45	SuperSport 2
Argentina	16:45	Disney+
Armenia	23:45	Fast Sports 2, Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	06:45	Optus Sport
Austria	20:45	DAZN, RTL
Azerbaijan	23:45	CBC Sport
Belgium	20:45	DAZN 1, DAZN 2, Play Sports 1
Bosnia And Herzegovina	20:45	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1
Brazil	16:45	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	21:45	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	15:45	DAZN Canada
Chile	16:45	Disney+
China	03:45	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	14:45	Disney+, ESPN
Cyprus	21:45	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 2, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech Republic	20:45	Sport 2
Denmark	20:45	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	21:45	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+
France	20:45	L'Equipe Live Foot
Georgia	23:45	Silk Sport 1
Germany	20:45	RTL, RTL+
Greece	21:45	Nova Sports 2
Hungary	20:45	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	19:45	Viaplay, Vodafone Sport
India	01:15	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 5
Israel	21:45	Sport 2
Italy	20:45	RAI 1, RaiPlay
Japan	04:45	DAZN Japan
Kosovo	20:45	ART Motion Sport 1
Mexico	13:45	Sky Sport
Montenegro	20:45	Arena Premium 1
Netherlands	20:45	Ziggo Sport
New Zealand	08:45	Sky Sport 3
Nigeria	20:45	SuperSport Action, Supersport Maximo 1
North Central America	—	Csport Caribbean, ESPN Norte, RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean
North Macedonia	20:45	Arena Premium 1
Norway	20:45	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium
Pakistan	00:45	Tapmad
Papua New Guinea	05:45	TVWan Sports
Peru	14:45	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	20:45	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	19:45	Sport TV2
Puerto Rico	15:45	Fox Sports 2
Romania	21:45	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Digi Sport 3, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2, Prima TV
Russia	22:45	Okko Sport
Serbia	20:45	Arena Premium 1, Nova Sport
South Africa	21:45	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South America	—	ESPN South, ViX Latin America
South Korea	04:45	SPOTV Prime+
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland, RSI La 2, RTL, RTS 2, RTS 2, RTS Sport, RTS Sport, SRF 2, SRF 2, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Taiwan	03:45	ELTA Sports 1
Turkey	22:45	Exxen
Ukraine	21:45	MEGOGO Futbol 2
United Kingdom	19:45	Amazon Prime Video, Sport 24 International
Uruguay	16:45	Disney+
Usa	15:45	Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, Foxsports.com, Sport 24 At Sea
Venezuela	15:45	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	02:45	TV 360
International	19:45	Disney+, VIX App


	Germany		Italy

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.8	4
	1.73	3.7	4.2
	1.9	3.75	4.2
	1.91	3.8	4.03	Watch
	1.88	3.93	4.37	Watch
	1.9	3.75	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.69)	3.79 ↑ (3.33)	4.17 ↓ (4.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

Watch this match and UEFA Nations League with fuboTV (for US customers)

Network on TV: FS2

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Current Win Probability

Germany
51.6%

Draw
25.3%

Italy
23%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52.3%

26.5%

21.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Germany has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Italy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.3%	11.9%	11.9%

Germany - Italy Predictions

Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Germany will win (votes: 45 - 76.3%). Italy will win (votes: 7 - 11.9%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 11.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Germany: 65.4% – 87.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baumann O. (G) Hoffenheim 4. Tah J. Bayer Leverkusen 2. Rudiger A. Real Madrid 15. Schlotterbeck N. Dortmund 6. Kimmich J. (C) Bayern Munich 16. Stiller A. VfB Stuttgart 8. Goretzka L. Bayern Munich 18. Mittelstadt M. VfB Stuttgart 19. Sane L. Bayern Munich 10. Musiala J. Bayern Munich 9. Kleindienst T. B. Monchengladbach	1. Donnarumma G. (C) PSG 5. Gatti F. Juventus 4. Buongiorno A. Napoli 21. Bastoni A. Inter 22. Di Lorenzo G. Napoli 18. Barella N. Inter 6. Ricci S. Torino 8. Tonali S. Newcastle Utd 19. Udogie D. Tottenham 9. Kean M. Fiorentina 11. Maldini D. Atalanta
Substitutes
20. Adeyemi K. Dortmund 11. Amiri N. Mainz 23. Andrich R. Bayer Leverkusen 17. Bisseck Y. Inter 7. Burkardt J. Mainz 5. Gross P. Dortmund 3. Koch R. Eintracht Frankfurt 14. Leweling J. VfB Stuttgart 12. Nubel A. (G) VfB Stuttgart 21. Ortega S. (G) Manchester City 22. Raum D. RB Leipzig 13. Undav D. VfB Stuttgart	2. Bellanova R. Atalanta 23. Casadei C. Torino 3. Comuzzo P. Fiorentina 16. Frattesi D. Inter 17. Lucca L. Udinese 12. Meret A. (G) Napoli 7. Politano M. Napoli 10. Raspadori G. Napoli 14. Rovella N. Lazio 15. Ruggeri M. Atalanta 13. Vicario G. (G) Tottenham 20. Zaccagni M. Lazio
Coaches
Nagelsmann J.	Spalletti L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
21', Gatti F. 🟨,
22', Stiller A. 🟨,
29', Buongiorno A. 🟨,
30', 1 - 0, Kimmich J. (Pen),
36', 2 - 0, Musiala J. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
45', 3 - 0, Kleindienst T. ⚽, Kimmich J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Gatti F. ↓, Politano M. ↑,
46', Maldini D. ↓, Frattesi D. ↑,
49', 3 - 1, Kean M. ⚽,
63', Goretzka L. ↓, Amiri N. ↑,
63', Sane L. ↓, Adeyemi K. ↑,
63', Stiller A. ↓, Gross P. ↑,
68', Adeyemi K. 🟨,
68', Tonali S. ↓, Raspadori G. ↑,
69', 3 - 2, Kean M. ⚽, Raspadori G. (A),
77', Musiala J. ↓, Andrich R. ↑,
77', Rudiger A. ↓, Bisseck Y. ↑,
79', Bastoni A. 🟨,
79', Kleindienst T. 🟨,
85', Kean M. ↓, Lucca L. ↑,
85', Ricci S. ↓, Zaccagni M. ↑,
90+5', 3 - 3, Raspadori G. (Pen),
90+9', Barella N. 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 2-1.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Germany won 3.

In this match Germany is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Germany won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 16:9 (average 2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Germany
UEFA Nations League
20.03.25	Italy - Germany	1:2 ✺
19.11.24	Hungary - Germany	1:1 ✺
16.11.24	Germany - Bosnia and Herzegovina	7:0 ✺
14.10.24	Germany - Netherlands	1:0 ✺
11.10.24	Bosnia and Herzegovina - Germany	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTWWW
- Italy
UEFA Nations League
20.03.25	Italy - Germany	1:2 ✺
17.11.24	Italy - France	1:3 ✺
14.11.24	Belgium - Italy	0:1 ✺
14.10.24	Italy - Israel	4:1 ✺
10.10.24	Italy - Belgium	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LLWWT

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Nations League
20.03.25	Italy - Germany	1:2
14.06.22	Germany - Italy	5:2
04.06.22	Italy - Germany	1:1
Friendly
15.11.16	Italy - Germany	0:0
UEFA Euro
02.07.16	Germany - Italy	2:1 penalties
Friendly
29.03.16	Germany - Italy	4:1
15.11.13	Italy - Germany	1:1

Germany - Italy