Match Info

Cyprus League - Round 26

Date: 16 March 2026, Monday

Location: Ethnikos Achnas (Achna)

Referee: Christoforou M. (Cyp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go


	Ethnikos Achna		AEK Larnaca

	1	X	2
	4.65	3.6	1.65
	5.1	3.69	1.76
	5.19	3.71	1.66	Watch
	4.5	3.3	1.7
	4.94	3.56	1.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.88 ↓ (6.91)	3.57 ↓ (4.37)	1.69 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ethnikos Achna
19.1%

Draw
26%

AEK Larnaca
54.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

13.5%

21.3%

65.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.2%

20.8%

66.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ethnikos Achna has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ethnikos Achna's performance.

AEK Larnaca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and AEK Larnaca might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ethnikos Achna than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ethnikos Achna that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for AEK Larnaca than the current prediction. (+11.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that AEK Larnaca could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	21.4%	50%

Ethnikos Achna - AEK Larnaca Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ethnikos Achna will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). AEK Larnaca will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for AEK Larnaca: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK Larnaca (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - AEK Larnaca (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. AEK Larnaca (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Flores L. (G) 33. Andereggen N. 27. Confais A. 70. Giousis C. 17. Gonzalez P. 12. Lomotey E. 5. Luis Felipe 20. Machado L. 77. Neneco 30. Papageorgiou G. 24. Psaltis P.	1. Alomerovic Z. (G) 30. Cabrera E. 86. Cardero A. 22. Ekpolo G. 2. Ioannou P. 9. Ivanovic D. 23. Izquierdo J. 25. Kyriakou C. 7. Ledes Gustavo 15. Milicevic H. (C) 32. Mudrazija R.
Substitutes
80. Angelopoulos G. N. 29. Bahanack P. 64. Camacho R. 7. Cejas J. 14. Dimitriou M. 44. Giallouros N. 8. Maia M. 72. Papakonstantinou N. (G) 38. Toumpas I. (G)	11. Bajic R. 99. Demetriou D. (G) 14. Garcia A. 13. Gurfinkel Y. 36. Loukaidis C. 41. Mathias Gonzalez 51. Paraskevas A. (G) 17. Pons P. 8. Rohden M. 4. Saborit E.
Coaches
Ferreira R.	Rozada J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Luis Felipe 🟨,
14', Izquierdo J. 🟨,
20', Andereggen N. 🟨,
45+2', Andereggen N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
54', Machado L. 🟨,
61', Gonzalez P. ↓, Bahanack P. ↑,
61', Machado L. ↓, Angelopoulos G. N. ↑,
64', Ledes Gustavo ↓, Rohden M. ↑,
64', Izquierdo J. ↓, Gurfinkel Y. ↑,
68', Alomerovic Z. 🟨,
68', Cardero A. ↓, Bajic R. ↑,
70', 0 - 1, Ivanovic D. ⚽,
73', Psaltis P. ↓, Giallouros N. ↑,
80', 0 - 2, Milicevic H. ⚽,
85', Luis Felipe ↓, Camacho R. ↑,
85', Confais A. ↓, Maia M. ↑,
85', Ivanovic D. ↓, Mathias Gonzalez ↑,
90+1', Bahanack P. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Cyprus League (Relegation Group: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Cyprus League (Championship Group: )).

Ethnikos Achna is Cyprus League (Relegation Group )

AEK Larnaca is Qualified for Cyprus League (Championship Group )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ethnikos Achna won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ethnikos Achna may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, AEK Larnaca is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ethnikos Achna: Ofori R. (Inactive)

There will not play in AEK Larnaca: Amyn Y. (Injury) Chacon Y. (Knee Injury) Izquierdo J. (Inactive) Jimmy Suarez (Groin Injury) Naoum G. (Muscle Injury) Roberge V. (Finger Injury) Rubio W. (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in AEK Larnaca: Miramon (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ethnikos Achna won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 21:48. (average 1.1:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Ethnikos Achna won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:20. (average 0.8:2.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	AEK Larnaca	4	3	0	1	9:4	5	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ethnikos Achna
Cypriot First Division
07.03.26	Olympiacos Nicosia - Ethnikos Achna	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Ethnikos Achna - Omonia Aradippou	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Apollon Limassol - Ethnikos Achna	1:0 ✺
15.02.26	Ethnikos Achna - APOEL	3:2 ✺
07.02.26	Enosis Neon Paralimni - Ethnikos Achna	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LLLWW
- AEK Larnaca
UEFA Europa Conference League
12.03.26	Crystal Palace - AEK Larnaca	0:0 ✺
Cypriot First Division
06.03.26	AEK Larnaca - Akritas Chlorakas	3:0 ✺
01.03.26	AEK Larnaca - Olympiacos Nicosia	1:1 ✺
22.02.26	Omonia Aradippou - AEK Larnaca	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	AEK Larnaca - Apollon Limassol	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Cypriot First Division
06.12.25	AEK Larnaca - Ethnikos Achna	2:1
08.01.25	Ethnikos Achna - AEK Larnaca	2:2
22.09.24	AEK Larnaca - Ethnikos Achna	2:2
16.12.23	Ethnikos Achna - AEK Larnaca	0:3
28.08.23	AEK Larnaca - Ethnikos Achna	5:5
Cypriot Cup
04.05.22	Ethnikos Achna - AEK Larnaca	3:1
26.04.22	AEK Larnaca - Ethnikos Achna	1:2

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