The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Excursionistas 52.6%
Draw 29.1%
Brown de Adrogué 18.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
42%
29.9%
28.1%
Our Initial ML Estimation
45%
27.9%
26.2%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Excursionistas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.6%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Excursionistas's performance.
Brown de Adrogué has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Brown de Adrogué might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Excursionistas than the current prediction. (-7.6%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Excursionistas that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brown de Adrogué than the current prediction. (+7.9%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Brown de Adrogué could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
66.7%
0%
33.3%
Excursionistas - Brown de Adrogué Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Excursionistas will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Brown de Adrogué will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Rodriguez N. (G) 3. Arango M. 11. Arbello I. 8. Avalos A. 10. Blanco M. 7. Espeche A. 4. Fernandez M. 2. Igarzabal H. 6. Paulides A. 9. Polvera M. 5. Zoratti G.
1. Giovini S. (G) 8. Bogado J. 6. Cardozo D. 5. Castano A. 7. Guerrero B. 4. Irusta L. 9. Meaurio N. 3. Ortiz A. 2. Pieres M. 10. Sproat M. 11. Visco A.
Substitutes
16. Alaniz M. 12. Blengio M. (G) 19. Cardozo M. 15. Damiolini N. 13. Maizarez I. 14. Pedrosa G. 17. Pereyra J. 18. Pereyra O. 20. Tellas G.
20. Baez B. 16. Gonzalez A. 18. Gonzalez L. 19. Padovani O. 15. Patrizio T. 14. Robles E. 13. Rodriguez N. 17. Rodriguez S. 12. Wysocki M. (G)
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
45+2', Zoratti G. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
57', Ortiz A. ↓, Robles E. ↑,
59', Arbello I. ↓, Damiolini N. ↑,
59', Espeche A. ↓, Tellas G. ↑,
61', Paulides A. 🟨,
67', Castano A. 🟨,
68', Visco A. ↓, Baez B. ↑,
69', Damiolini N. 🟨,
69', 🟨,
69', Blanco M. ↓, Pereyra J. ↑,
70', Polvera M. ↓, Cardozo M. ↑,
72', Sproat M. ↓, Padovani O. ↑,
72', Meaurio N. ↓, Gonzalez L. ↑,
72', Castano A. ↓, Patrizio T. ↑,
82', 🟨,
86', Avalos A. ↓, Alaniz M. ↑,
86', 🟨,
87', 🟨,
90+4', Arango M. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 0, Pereyra J. ⚽,
90+7', 🟨,
Preview
This match features one of the leaders against an outsider (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional and 17).
Excursionistas has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Brown de Adrogué's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
Excursionistas could have a small edge in this match.
In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Excursionistas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:4. (average 0:2).
Including home match between the teams, Excursionistas won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
1
Excursionistas
38
22
8
8
59:30
29
74
19
Brown Adrogue
38
8
15
15
24:37
-13
39
Last Results with these Odds
Brown de Adrogué - the odds 3.26 are the expected chance of winning is 28.08%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.
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