Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 13 August 2024, Tuesday

Location: Ulker Stadium Şükrü Saracoğlu (Istanbul)

Referee: Sanchez J. M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Iran	Persiana Sports
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Portugal	Canal 11, Sport TV2
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
Turkey	Exxen


	Fenerbahçe		Lille

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.7	4.1	Watch
	1.85	3.7	4
	1.83	3.75	4	Watch
	1.85	3.88	4.29
	1.81	3.83	4.25	Watch
	1.8	3.6	3.8
	1.88	3.86	4.12	Watch
	1.83	3.75	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↓ (2.22)	3.76 ↑ (3.44)	4.07 ↑ (3.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
51.6%

Draw
25.2%

Lille
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.7%

28.2%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

28.3%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fenerbahçe's performance.

Lille has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fenerbahçe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lille than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.4%	10.1%	5.5%

Fenerbahçe - Lille Predictions

Users Predictions: 104 users predict this event. Fenerbahçe will win (votes: 90 - 86.5%). Lille will win (votes: 6 - 5.8%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fenerbahçe: 79.9% – 93.1%. The data is statistically significant.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Livakovic D. (G) 16. Muldur M. 6. Djiku A. 2. Soyuncu C. 24. Oosterwolde J. 53. Szymanski S. 5. Yuksek I. 8. Yandas M. 97. Saint-Maximin A. 9. Dzeko E. (C) 10. Tadic D.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 18. Diakite B. 12. Meunier T. 4. Alexsandro 5. Gudmundsson G. 22. Santos T. 8. Gomes A. 21. Andre B. (C) 10. Cabella R. 9. David J. 7. Haraldsson H.
Substitutes
95. Akcicek Y. 70. Aydin O. 54. Cetin E. (G) 30. Egribayat I. (G) 28. Elmaz B. 19. En Nesyri Y. 17. Kahveci I. C. 33. Krunic R. 21. Osayi-Samuel B. 50. Rodrigo Becao 23. Tosun C. 26. Zajc M.	27. Bayo M. 37. Burlet V. 24. Ilic A. 31. Ismaily 2. Mandi A. 1. Mannone V. (G) 29. Mbappe E. 17. Mukau N. 16. Olmeta L. (G) 11. Sahraoui O. 36. Toure O. 23. Zhegrova E.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Genesio B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Muldur M. 🟨,
35', Alexsandro 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', Gomes A. 🟨,
63', Muldur M. ↓, Osayi-Samuel B. ↑,
63', Yandas M. ↓, En Nesyri Y. ↑,
65', Djiku A. 🟨,
68', Soyuncu C. 🟨,
69', Cabella R. ↓, Zhegrova E. ↑,
75', Saint-Maximin A. ↓, Kahveci I. C. ↑,
80', Zhegrova E. 🟨,
82', Santos T. ↓, Mandi A. ↑,
82', Gomes A. ↓, Mukau N. ↑,
85', Tadic D. ↓, Tosun C. ↑,
86', Haraldsson H. 🟨,
90+1', 1 - 0, Diakite B. (Own goal), Dzeko E. (A),
Extra Time (0 - 1)
91', Dzeko E. ↓, Elmaz B. ↑,
98', Haraldsson H. ↓, Sahraoui O. ↑,
106', Gudmundsson G. ↓, Ismaily ↑,
106', Meunier T. ↓, Toure O. ↑,
109', Mandi A. 🟥,
116', 1 - 1, David J. (Pen),
119', Oosterwolde J. ↓, Aydin O. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 1-2.

At the moment teams are feeling good and ready to play.

Lille could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Fenerbahçe is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Fenerbahçe won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Super League
10.08.24	Fenerbahçe - Adana Demirspor	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
06.08.24	Lille - Fenerbahçe	2:1 ✺
30.07.24	Fenerbahçe - Lugano	2:1 ✺
23.07.24	Lugano - Fenerbahçe	3:4 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.24	Fenerbahçe - Hull City	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLWWW
- OSC Lille
UEFA Champions League
06.08.24	Lille - Fenerbahçe	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
30.07.24	Lille - Celta de Vigo	3:1 ✺
24.07.24	Wolfsburg - Lille	1:0 ✺
20.07.24	Genk - Lille	2:2 ✺
17.07.24	Gent - Lille	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
06.08.24	Lille - Fenerbahçe	2:1

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