Match Info

EUROPE: Champions League - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 July 2024, Tuesday

Location: Ulker Stadium Şükrü Saracoğlu (Istanbul)

Referee: Jones R. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11
Switzerland	RSI La 2, SRF Info, SRF Info
Turkey	D Smart GO, Exxen, Spor Smart 1


	Fenerbahçe		Lugano

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.25	8.5	Watch
	1.28	6	10
	1.3	5.5	9	Watch
	1.29	5.8	9.6
	1.27	6.54	8.07	Watch
	1.22	5.8	9
	1.3	6.2	9.6	Watch
	1.27	5.9	9.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.28 ↓ (1.31)	5.87 ↑ (5.01)	9.2 ↑ (8.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fenerbahçe
73.7%

Draw
16%

Lugano
10.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.2%

18.4%

11.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.6%

18.6%

11.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fenerbahçe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

Lugano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
89.7%	5.1%	5.1%

Fenerbahçe - Lugano Predictions

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (35 of 38 users predict this - 92.11%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.54% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Livakovic D. (G) 21. Osayi-Samuel B. 2. Soyuncu C. 6. Djiku A. 24. Oosterwolde J. 35. Fred 53. Szymanski S. 33. Krunic R. 10. Tadic D. 9. Dzeko E. (C) 7. Kadioglu F.	1. Saipi A. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 22. El Wafi A. 5. Hajdari A. 29. Belhadj M. 20. Doumbia O. 25. Bislimi U. 10. Bottani M. (C) 31. Aliseda I. 23. Valenzuela M.
Substitutes
70. Aydin O. 54. Cetin E. (G) 30. Egribayat I. C. (G) 28. Elmaz B. 17. Kahveci I. C. 11. Kent R. 16. Muldur M. 50. Rodrigo Becao 97. Saint-Maximin A. 23. Tosun C. 8. Yandas M. H. 5. Yuksek I.	2. Brault-Guillard Z. 21. Cimignani Y. 27. Dos Santos D. 8. Grgic A. 7. Macek R. 18. Mahou H. 17. Mai L. 26. Marques M. 99. Mina D. (G) 58. Osigwe S. (G) 93. Przybylko K. 28. Ryter Y.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Croci-Torti M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
7', 0 - 1, Belhadj M. ⚽,
31', Fred ↓, Yuksek I. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Krunic R. ↓, Yandas M. H. ↑,
55', Doumbia O. 🟨,
57', Aliseda I. 🟨,
58', Belhadj M. 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Dzeko E. ⚽, Yandas M. H. (A),
60', Bottani M. ↓, Przybylko K. ↑,
66', Hajdari A. ↓, Cimignani Y. ↑,
67', Belhadj M. ↓, Grgic A. ↑,
70', Osayi-Samuel B. ↓, Muldur M. ↑,
73', Bislimi U. ↓, Dos Santos D. ↑,
73', Aliseda I. ↓, Mahou H. ↑,
79', Zanotti M. 🟨,
83', Kadioglu F. ↓, Kahveci I. C. ↑,
86', Dzeko E. 🟨,
90+3', 2 - 1, Szymanski S. ⚽, Tadic D. (A),

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 4-3.

Fenerbahçe is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Lugano is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Lugano could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Lugano have a series of home games.

In this match Fenerbahçe is indisputable favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Fenerbahçe won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fenerbahçe
UEFA Champions League
23.07.24	Lugano - Fenerbahçe	3:4 ✺
Club Friendly
18.07.24	Fenerbahçe - Hull City	5:1 ✺
13.07.24	Strasbourg - Fenerbahçe	0:4 ✺
10.07.24	Fenerbahçe - Hajduk Split	0:1 ✺
06.07.24	Admira - Fenerbahçe	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWLT
- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
27.07.24	Basel - Lugano	1:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
23.07.24	Lugano - Fenerbahçe	3:4 ✺
Swiss Super League
20.07.24	Lugano - Grasshoppers	2:1 ✺
Club Friendly
13.07.24	Lugano - Parma	3:1 ✺
06.07.24	Lugano - Aarau	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
23.07.24	Lugano - Fenerbahçe	3:4

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