Match Info

Super League - Championship Group - Round 38

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Stadio di Cornaredo (Lugano)

Referee: Schnyder U. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV
Switzerland	Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2


	Lugano		Basel

	1	X	2
	1.66	4.2	4.1	Watch
	1.68	4.15	4.05
	1.73	4.45	4.19
	1.79	4.3	3.84	Watch
	1.65	4	4.4
	1.58	4.33	4.92	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.96)	4.24 ↑ (3.85)	4.25 ↑ (3.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugano
55.8%

Draw
22.1%

Basel
22.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.3%

24.1%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.2%

23.2%

27.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugano's performance.

Basel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Basel might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugano than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lugano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Basel than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Basel could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lugano - Basel Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Lugano (1.71) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lugano will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lugano (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. von Ballmoos D. (G) 46. Zanotti M. 6. Papadopoulos A. 17. Mai L. 3. Delcroix H. 21. Cimignani Y. 29. Belhadj M. 25. Bislimi U. 7. Alioski E. 11. Steffen R. (C) 91. Behrens K.	13. Salvi M. (G) 27. Ruegg K. 4. Omeragic B. 24. Daniliuc F. 31. Schmid D. (C) 8. Koindredi K. 22. Leroy L. 14. Bacanin A. 21. Salah I. 23. Ajeti Al. 18. Duranville J.
Substitutes
23. Ajdin G. 10. Bottani M. 44. Joao Carbone 4. Kelvin D. 14. Kendouci A. 9. Koutsias G. 18. Mahou H. 24. Pihlstrom E. 1. Saipi A. (G)	29. Cisse M. 28. Kacuri D. 37. Koloto G. 40. Rexhaj A. 10. Shaqiri X. 19. Soticek M. 6. Tsunemoto K. 3. Vouilloz N. 49. Widmer D’Autilia R. (G)
Coaches
Croci-Torti M.	Lichtsteiner S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Behrens K. ⚽, Alioski E. (A),
27', Ruegg K. 🟨,
30', Duranville J. ↓, Soticek M. ↑,
30', Papadopoulos A. 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Behrens K. ⚽, Alioski E. (A),
39', Bacanin A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Behrens K. ↓, Koutsias G. ↑,
46', Ruegg K. ↓, Tsunemoto K. ↑,
52', 3 - 0, Steffen R. ⚽,
56', 4 - 0, Koutsias G. ⚽,
59', Steffen R. ↓, Bottani M. ↑,
62', Ajeti Al. ↓, Koloto G. ↑,
62', Salah I. ↓, Cisse M. ↑,
62', Bacanin A. ↓, Shaqiri X. ↑,
79', Belhadj M. ↓, Kendouci A. ↑,
80', Cimignani Y. ↓, Pihlstrom E. ↑,
85', Zanotti M. 🟨,
86', Bislimi U. ↓, Ajdin G. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 2.

Lugano is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Basel's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Lugano may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Lugano is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Lugano: Cassano C. (Knee Injury) Dos Santos D. (Injury) Grgic A. (Yellow Cards) Marques M. (Injury)

There will not play in Basel: Kaio Eduardo (Knee Injury) Senaya E. (Inactive) Traore B. (Yellow Cards) van Breemen F. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lugano won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 27:29. (average 1.4:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Lugano won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 15:18. (average 1.5:1.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lugano	10	9	1	0	31:7	24	28
6	Basel	9	4	1	4	17:17	0	13

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Lugano
Swiss Super League
14.05.26	Sion - Lugano	2:2 ✺
10.05.26	Lugano - St. Gallen	1:2 ✺
03.05.26	Lugano - Young Boys	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Thun - Lugano	0:1 ✺
11.04.26	Zürich - Lugano	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.5 TLWWW
- FC Basel
Swiss Super League
14.05.26	Basel - St. Gallen	1:3 ✺
10.05.26	Young Boys - Basel	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Basel - Thun	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Basel - Sion	0:2 ✺
18.04.26	Thun - Basel	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Super League
15.02.26	Basel - Lugano	1:1
09.11.25	Basel - Lugano	0:1
10.08.25	Lugano - Basel	3:1
10.05.25	Lugano - Basel	2:5
06.04.25	Basel - Lugano	2:0
19.01.25	Lugano - Basel	2:2
27.07.24	Basel - Lugano	1:2

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