Match Info

Date: 19 October 2022, Wednesday

Location: Stadio Bruno Recchioni (Fermo)


	Fermana		San Donato Tavarnelle

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	3.4
	1.94	3.1	3.7
	1.97	2.95	3.55
	1.93	2.98	3.49
	2	3	3.7
	1.95	3.25	3.65	Watch
	2.02	3.2	3.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.97 ↓ (2.22)	3.08 ↑ (2.8)	3.59 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fermana
45.8%

Draw
29.2%

San Donato Tavarnelle
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.2%

31.9%

27.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34%

27%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fermana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fermana's performance.

San Donato Tavarnelle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fermana than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fermana that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Donato Tavarnelle than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that San Donato Tavarnelle could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	25%	12.5%

Fermana - San Donato Tavarnelle Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Fermana will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). San Donato will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fermana: 29% – 96%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 15 and 19 in the zone Serie C ~ Play Out).

Fermana is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

San Donato has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Fermana will have a poor advantage in this game.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Fermana
Italian Serie C Group B
16.10.22	Ancona - Fermana	2:1 ✺
09.10.22	Fermana - Virtus Entella	0:1 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
05.10.22	Cesena - Fermana	3:1 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
02.10.22	Fermana - Olbia	0:0 ✺
24.09.22	Montevarchi - Fermana	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLLTT
- San Donato Tavarnelle
Italian Serie C Group B
16.10.22	San Donato Tavarnelle - Alessandria	0:1 ✺
09.10.22	Vis Pesaro - San Donato Tavarnelle	1:0 ✺
Coppa Italia Serie C
05.10.22	Viterbese - San Donato Tavarnelle	2:0 ✺
Italian Serie C Group B
02.10.22	San Donato Tavarnelle - Lucchese	0:2 ✺
24.09.22	Reggiana - San Donato Tavarnelle	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

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