Match Info

Reserve League - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 22 April 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Ferro 2		Vélez Sársfield 2

	1	X	2
	4.95	3.5	1.6
	5.42	3.68	1.65
	5.33	3.71	1.59	Watch
	5	3.25	1.6
	5.69	3.55	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.28 ↑ (5.25)	3.54 ↓ (3.56)	1.6 ↓ (1.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferro 2
17.3%

Draw
25.7%

Vélez Sársfield 2
57%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.6%

25.9%

56.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.4%

25.7%

57.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferro 2 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Vélez Sársfield 2 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ferro 2 than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vélez Sársfield 2 than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Ferro 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2 Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
82', 0 - 2, ⚽,
83', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Reserve League (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In recent matches, Ferro 2 has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vélez 2 is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Vélez 2 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vélez 2 is considered a favorite.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ferro 2 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Including home match between the teams, Ferro 2 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferro Carril Oeste 2
Argentinian Reserve League
15.04.26	Platense 2 - Ferro 2	1:1 ✺
07.04.26	Ferro 2 - Quilmes 2	0:2 ✺
01.04.26	Estudiantes La Plata 2 - Ferro 2	0:1 ✺
26.03.26	Ferro 2 - Central Córdoba 2	3:1 ✺
19.03.26	San Martín de San Juan 2 - Ferro 2	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TLWWL
- Vélez Sársfield 2
Argentinian Reserve League
15.04.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Aldosivi 2	4:0 ✺
08.04.26	Gimnasia La Plata 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	0:1 ✺
01.04.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Unión Santa Fe 2	4:0 ✺
26.03.26	Atlético Tucumán 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	Vélez Sársfield 2 - Godoy Cruz 2	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Reserve League
03.08.25	Ferro 2 - Vélez Sársfield 2	2:2

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