Match Info

Mocambola - Round 12

Date: 6 August 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished


	Ferroviário de Maputo		Baía de Pemba

	1	X	2
	1.49	3.20	7.50
	1.48	3.4	7.3
	1.53	3.3	7.36	Watch
	1.44	3.2	6.75
	1.49	3.24	8.2
	1.47	3.35	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (1.65)	3.28 ↑ (3.07)	7.39 ↑ (5.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 9.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ferroviário de Maputo
60.5%

Draw
27.3%

Baía de Pemba
12.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.7%

29.4%

15.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ferroviário de Maputo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ferroviário de Maputo's performance.

Baía de Pemba has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Ferroviário de Maputo - Baía de Pemba Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 and 12 in the zone Relegation).

Baía de Pemba may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ferro de Maputo is the obvious favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ferro de Maputo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1.3:0).

Including home matches between the teams, Ferro de Maputo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0. (average 1.3:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ferroviario Maputo	21	8	5	8	15:13	2	29
10	Baia de Pemba	21	5	7	9	11:19	-8	22

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ferroviário de Maputo
Mozambique Moçambola
27.07.26	Ferroviário de Maputo - Ferroviario Lichinga	2:0 ✺
25.06.26	ENH Vilankulo - Ferroviário de Maputo	0:0 ✺
21.06.26	Ferroviário de Maputo - Ferroviário da Beira	0:1 ✺
18.06.26	Ferroviário de Maputo - Sofala	2:0 ✺
13.05.26	Ferroviário de Maputo - Maxaquene	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WTLWW
- Baía de Pemba FC
Mozambique Moçambola
18.06.26	Baía de Pemba - ENH Vilankulo	2:2 ✺
05.10.25	Baía de Pemba - Costa do Sol	0:0 ✺
01.10.25	Black Bulls - Baía de Pemba	3:2 ✺
23.09.25	Baía de Pemba - Ferroviário de Nacala	1:1 ✺
05.09.25	Ferroviário da Beira - Baía de Pemba	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TTLTL

Latest Head to Head

Mozambique Moçambola
02.08.25	Ferroviário de Maputo - Baía de Pemba	0:0
24.08.24	Ferroviário de Maputo - Baía de Pemba	1:0
02.07.23	Ferroviário de Maputo - Baía de Pemba	3:0

Ferroviário de Maputo - Baía de Pemba