Match Info

Brasileiro Women - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Luso Brasileiro (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	SporTV, TV Globo


	Flamengo		São Paulo

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.00	2.25
	2.55	3.15	2.60
	3.04	3.24	2.33
	2.98	3.27	2.34
	3.00	3.05	2.30
	2.92	3.34	2.34
	2.90	3.10	2.32
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.89 ↑ (2.7)	3.16 ↑ (3.1)	2.35 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
31.8%

Draw
29.1%

São Paulo
39.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.5%

29.2%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

30.8%

39.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

São Paulo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

The ML Model estimate for Flamengo aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Flamengo - São Paulo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vivi Holzel (G) 11. Cristiane 8. Djeni (C) 7. Fabi Simoes 22. Fernanda 16. Flavia Mota 81. Jucinara 28. Ju Ferreira 19. Layza 10. Mariana 3. Nubia	12. Carlinha (G) 7. Aline 23. Bia Menezes 2. Bruna Calderan 3. Carol Gil 19. Crivelari 11. Isa 5. Karla Alves 95. Robinha 8. Serrana 4. Tayla
Substitutes
34. Ana Laura 35. Anna Luiza 25. Bibi (G) 13. Bruna Santos 79. Condorelli I. 99. Costa Garrit N. 55. Duda Cerqueira 31. Laysa 88. Leticia 17. Maisa	1. Anna Beatriz (G) 15. Barbosa C. 33. Calazans L. 6. Clara 9. Gadu 18. Kesia Sena 72. Mylena Carioca 16. Pereyra M. 26. Preininger V. 28. Rafa Soares 99. Vi Amaral

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
36', Djeni ↓, Anna Luiza ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Aline ↓, Vi Amaral ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Mariana ⚽,
67', Fabi Simoes ↓, Laysa ↑,
70', Crivelari ↓, Kesia Sena ↑,
71', Isa ↓, Mylena Carioca ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Mylena Carioca ⚽,
78', Layza ↓, Maisa ↑,
88', 1 - 2, Robinha ⚽,
90+9', 1 - 3, Bruna Calderan ⚽,

Preview

First leg.

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasileiro Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Brasileiro Women (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 0.

Currently, both teams are in excellent shape.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 9:18. (average 0.8:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo Women
Brasileiro Women
05.09.26	Ferroviária - Flamengo	2:2 ✺
29.08.26	Flamengo - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
22.08.26	Flamengo - Atlético Mineiro	4:1 ✺
16.08.26	Santos - Flamengo	2:3 ✺
10.08.26	América Mineiro - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 TWWWT
- São Paulo FC Women
Brasileiro Women
05.09.26	São Paulo - Grêmio Porto Alegrense	2:0 ✺
29.08.26	Grêmio Porto Alegrense - São Paulo	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Paulista Women
26.08.26	Ferroviária - São Paulo	3:0 ✺
Brasileiro Women
22.08.26	São Paulo - Mixto	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Botafogo RJ - São Paulo	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brasileiro Women
04.05.26	São Paulo - Flamengo	2:1
Copa do Brasil Women
17.09.25	São Paulo - Flamengo	1:0
Brasileiro Women
24.03.25	Flamengo - São Paulo	0:1
Supercopa do Brasil Women
12.03.25	São Paulo - Flamengo	1:0
Brasileiro Women
20.05.24	São Paulo - Flamengo	2:1
15.05.23	Flamengo - São Paulo	1:1
Club Friendly Women
10.11.22	Flamengo - São Paulo	3:0

Flamengo - São Paulo: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide