Match Info

III Liga - Group II - Round 18

Date: 25 March 2026, Wednesday


	Flota Świnoujście		Noteć Czarnków

	1	X	2
	1.9	3.5	3.2
	2	3.5	3.05
	2.03	3.5	2.93
	1.99	3.71	3.11	Watch
	2	3.3	3
	2.01	3.71	3.19	Watch
	2.16	3.75	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.01 ↑ (1.85)	3.57 ↓ (3.73)	3.01 ↓ (3.21)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flota Świnoujście
44.8%

Draw
25.3%

Noteć Czarnków
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.3%

23.9%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.9%

24.7%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flota Świnoujście has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Noteć Czarnków has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flota Świnoujście than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Flota Świnoujście, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Noteć Czarnków than the current prediction. (-3%)

Flota Świnoujście - Noteć Czarnków Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Turski H. ⚽,
15', 1 - 1, Szulc H. ⚽,
19', 2 - 1, Kasperowicz K. ⚽,
37', 2 - 2, Stasiak A. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
80', 2 - 3, ⚽,
83', 2 - 4, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 11).

Recent form of Flota has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Noteć Czarnków has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Flota is considered a favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flota won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:11. (average 1.4:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Flota won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Notec Czarnkow	11	5	1	5	18:15	3	16
10	Swinoujscie	11	4	2	5	15:20	-5	14

Last Results with these Odds

Noteć Czarnków - the odds 3.21 are the expected chance of winning is 27.81%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flota Świnoujście
Polish Division 3 - Group II
21.03.26	Lipno Stęszew - Flota Świnoujście	2:3 ✺
14.03.26	Flota Świnoujście - Września	2:1 ✺
06.03.26	Luzino - Flota Świnoujście	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Flota Świnoujście - Tłuchowia Tłuchowo	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
14.02.26	Chojniczanka Chojnice - Flota Świnoujście	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WWLWL
- MKS Noteć Czarnków
Polish Division 3 - Group II
21.03.26	Luzino - Noteć Czarnków	3:0 ✺
14.03.26	Noteć Czarnków - Tłuchowia Tłuchowo	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Pogoń Szczecin II - Noteć Czarnków	1:2 ✺
27.02.26	Zawisza Bydgoszcz - Noteć Czarnków	5:0 ✺
29.11.25	Noteć Czarnków - Wybrzeże Rewalskie Rewal	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 3 - Group II
02.08.25	Noteć Czarnków - Flota Świnoujście	1:1
29.03.25	Noteć Czarnków - Flota Świnoujście	4:0
31.08.24	Flota Świnoujście - Noteć Czarnków	2:1
20.04.24	Noteć Czarnków - Flota Świnoujście	2:3
23.09.23	Flota Świnoujście - Noteć Czarnków	1:3

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