Match Info

ITALY: Serie D - Group E - Round 26

Date: 2 March 2025, Sunday


	Follonica Gavorrano		Ostia Mare

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.3	3.6
	1.93	3.27	3.54
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↓ (2.17)	3.29 ↑ (3.1)	3.57 ↑ (3.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Follonica Gavorrano
47.6%

Draw
27.3%

Ostia Mare
25.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

29.4%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42%

29.5%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Follonica Gavorrano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Follonica Gavorrano's performance.

Ostia Mare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Follonica Gavorrano than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Follonica Gavorrano that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ostia Mare than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Follonica Gavorrano - Ostia Mare Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Bramante S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
75', 1 - 1, Rasi A. (Pen),

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 8 and 11).

Follonica Gavorrano is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Ostia Mare is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Follonica Gavorrano could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Follonica Gavorrano will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Follonica Gavorrano won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:4 (average 1.2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Follonica Gavorrano won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:1 (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Follonica Gavorrano
Italian Serie D - Group E
23.02.25	Trestina - Follonica Gavorrano	0:0 ✺
16.02.25	Follonica Gavorrano - Fezzanese	1:1 ✺
19.01.25	SanGiovanniValdarno - Follonica Gavorrano	1:0 ✺
12.01.25	Follonica Gavorrano - Terranuova Traiana	2:2 ✺
05.01.25	Livorno - Follonica Gavorrano	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 TTLTL
- AS Ostia Mare Lido Calcio
Italian Serie D - Group E
23.02.25	Ostia Mare - SanGiovanniValdarno	2:2 ✺
02.02.25	Terranuova Traiana - Ostia Mare	1:3 ✺
19.01.25	Seravezza Pozzi - Ostia Mare	1:1 ✺
12.01.25	Ostia Mare - Orvietana	2:1 ✺
05.01.25	Ghiviborgo - Ostia Mare	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 TWTWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group E
27.10.24	Ostia Mare - Follonica Gavorrano	1:0
30.04.23	Ostia Mare - Follonica Gavorrano	2:1
18.12.22	Follonica Gavorrano - Ostia Mare	2:0
16.05.21	Ostia Mare - Follonica Gavorrano	0:2
17.01.21	Follonica Gavorrano - Ostia Mare	1:1

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