Match Info

Eliteserien - Round 13

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Fredrikstad Stadion (Fredrikstad)

Referee: Kringstad S. (Nor)

Where to Watch on TV:


Norway	TV2 Play
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Fredrikstad		Lillestrøm SK

	1	X	2
	3.1	3.5	2.2	Watch
	2.90	3.40	2.30
	3.15	3.7	2.12
	3.26	3.71	2.26
	3.22	3.6	2.22	Watch
	3.15	3.65	2.2
	3.13	3.53	2.22	Watch
	3	3.35	2.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.11 ↑ (2.7)	3.56 ↑ (3.4)	2.22 ↓ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 1.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fredrikstad
30.5%

Draw
26.7%

Lillestrøm SK
42.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

27.1%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

27.7%

39.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fredrikstad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Lillestrøm SK has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fredrikstad than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lillestrøm SK than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	14.3%	50%

Fredrikstad - Lillestrøm SK Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Fredrikstad will win (votes: 4 - 30.8%). Lillestrøm will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lillestrøm: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Fredrikstad (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Fredrikstad (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (1.54) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fredrikstad (1.57) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Fredrikstad (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
77. Borsheim M. (G) 4. Holme F. 5. Rafn S. (C) 12. Fredriksen U. 16. Eid D. 14. Nilsson M. 20. Ohlenschlaeger O. 19. Ghebreyohannes F. 7. Faraas B. 9. Laghzaoui S. 23. Skogvold H.	12. Dahlberg P. (G) 3. Ottesen S. 28. Gabrielsen R. (C) 23. Jenssen U. 11. Elkaer F. 29. Ibrahimaj Y. 7. Alperud L. 8. Karlsbakk M. 14. Nyheim G. 15. Drammeh S. 10. Olsen T.
Substitutes
3. Andresen A. 18. Norbye J. 10. Nunez J. 26. Nysveen J. 2. Okpaleke K. 1. Ovretveit O. (G) 24. Owusu L. 28. Owusu S.	9. Arierhi K. 31. Chaminta A. 20. Felix Va 5. Foss S. 1. Hagerup S. (G) 22. Kitolano J. 18. Krygard K. 26. Paintsil Y. 6. Woxen H.
Coaches
Rojkjaer C.	Odegaard H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
15', Karlsbakk M. 🟨,
43', Nilsson M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', Alperud L. ↓, Felix Va ↑,
59', Karlsbakk M. ↓, Krygard K. ↑,
61', Eid D. 🟨,
61', Rafn S. 🟨,
62', 0 - 1, Nyheim G. ⚽, Drammeh S. (A),
68', Laghzaoui S. ↓, Owusu L. ↑,
73', 0 - 2, Olsen T. ⚽, Felix Va (A),
75', Faraas B. ↓, Nunez J. ↑,
84', Nilsson M. ↓, Nysveen J. ↑,
84', Ohlenschlaeger O. ↓, Norbye J. ↑,
84', Ghebreyohannes F. ↓, Andresen A. ↑,
90+1', Olsen T. ↓, Arierhi K. ↑,
90+5', Drammeh S. ↓, Foss S. ↑,
90+5', Nyheim G. ↓, Woxen H. ↑,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 10 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fredrikstad won 3.

In recent matches, Fredrikstad has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Lillestrøm is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Fredrikstad may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Fredrikstad: Kvile S. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Lillestrøm: Garnas E. B. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Fredrikstad: Owusu S. (Muscle Injury) Sorlokk S. (Foot Injury)

There are questionable in Lillestrøm: Arierhi K. (Injury) Kitolano E. (Broken Leg) Ranger L. (Injury) Woxen H. (Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Fredrikstad won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:18. (average 1.5:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Fredrikstad won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.8:1.5).

Outrights of Norwegian Eliteserien for now

Lillestrom: 0.21%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Lillestrom	22	10	3	9	30:31	-1	33
8	Fredrikstad	22	8	5	9	26:33	-7	29

Last Results with these Odds

Fredrikstad - the odds 2.7 are the expected chance of winning is 34.17%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fredrikstad FK
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Vålerenga - Fredrikstad	3:1 ✺
28.06.26	Fredrikstad - Elfsborg	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Fredrikstad - Hamarkameratene	1:1 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
29.05.26	Fredrikstad - Start	2:1 ✺
25.05.26	Sandefjord - Fredrikstad	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 LTTWT
- Lillestrøm SK
Club Friendly
03.07.26	Lillestrøm SK - Sarpsborg 08	3:1 ✺
26.06.26	Lillestrøm SK - Degerfors	2:3 ✺
20.06.26	Midtjylland - Lillestrøm SK	1:0 ✺
Norwegian Eliteserien
25.05.26	Hamarkameratene - Lillestrøm SK	2:0 ✺
20.05.26	Lillestrøm SK - Kristiansund	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
31.01.26	Lillestrøm SK - Fredrikstad	2:2
Norwegian NM Cup
21.05.25	Lillestrøm SK - Fredrikstad	2:1 penalties
Club Friendly
22.03.25	Fredrikstad - Lillestrøm SK	1:0
Norwegian Eliteserien
20.10.24	Fredrikstad - Lillestrøm SK	2:1
20.05.24	Lillestrøm SK - Fredrikstad	0:3
Club Friendly
27.01.24	Lillestrøm SK - Fredrikstad	2:1
04.03.22	Fredrikstad - Lillestrøm SK	1:1

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