Match Info

NPL Premier Division - Round 5

Date: 23 August 2025, Saturday


	Gainsborough Trinity		Lancaster City

	1	X	2
	1.75	3.6	3.7
	1.78	3.65	3.6
	1.79	3.82	3.78
	1.99	3.58	3.42	Watch
	1.85	3.7	3.4
	1.71	3.52	4.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.12)	3.65 ↑ (3.5)	3.71 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gainsborough Trinity
50.4%

Draw
25%

Lancaster City
24.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.8%

26.5%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

26.3%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gainsborough Trinity has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Gainsborough Trinity's performance.

Lancaster City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Lancaster City might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (-6.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Gainsborough Trinity that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lancaster City than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Gainsborough Trinity - Lancaster City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gainsborough won 3.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

In this match, Gainsborough is seen as the favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Gainsborough won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:19. (average 1.5:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Gainsborough won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 11:12. (average 1.6:1.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gainsborough Trinity
English NPL Premier Division
19.08.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Stockton Town	2:0 ✺
16.08.25	Warrington Rylands - Gainsborough Trinity	4:2 ✺
12.08.25	Ilkeston - Gainsborough Trinity	0:1 ✺
09.08.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Ashton United	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
19.07.25	Gainsborough Trinity - Scunthorpe United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 19.3 WLWLW
- Lancaster City
English NPL Premier Division
19.08.25	Morpeth Town - Lancaster City	0:1 ✺
16.08.25	Lancaster City - Hebburn Town	3:2 ✺
12.08.25	Lancaster City - United of Manchester	0:2 ✺
09.08.25	Hyde United - Lancaster City	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
15.07.25	Kendal Town - Lancaster City	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
14.12.24	Lancaster City - Gainsborough Trinity	1:2
07.09.24	Gainsborough Trinity - Lancaster City	1:2
06.04.24	Lancaster City - Gainsborough Trinity	2:1
04.11.23	Gainsborough Trinity - Lancaster City	1:0
08.04.23	Lancaster City - Gainsborough Trinity	1:2
English FA Trophy
29.10.22	Lancaster City - Gainsborough Trinity	3:2
English NPL Premier Division
27.08.22	Gainsborough Trinity - Lancaster City	0:2

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